{
  "date": "2026-06-08",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-08T08:01:42.591638",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 108,
    "odds_matched_count": 60,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 19,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-06-08",
      "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
      "hitter_id": 683002,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 824829,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 455,
      "over_odds": 455,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2186,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2467,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2189,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0003,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 52.6,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-08",
      "player_name": "Brent Rooker",
      "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker",
      "hitter_id": 667670,
      "team": "ATH",
      "team_abbr": "ATH",
      "opponent": "MIL",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIL",
      "game_id": 824998,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 350,
      "over_odds": 350,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2206,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2492,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2207,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-08",
      "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
      "hitter_id": 608070,
      "team": "CLE",
      "team_abbr": "CLE",
      "opponent": "NYY",
      "opponent_abbr": "NYY",
      "game_id": 824427,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 395,
      "over_odds": 395,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2161,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2435,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2162,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 51.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-08",
      "player_name": "Cody Bellinger",
      "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger",
      "hitter_id": 641355,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "game_id": 824427,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 470,
      "over_odds": 470,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2025,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2263,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2026,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 49.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-08",
      "player_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665862,
      "team": "NYY",
      "team_abbr": "NYY",
      "opponent": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "CLE",
      "game_id": 824427,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 430,
      "over_odds": 430,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1855,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2052,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1856,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 46.65,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-08",
      "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper",
      "hitter_id": 547180,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "game_id": 822806,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 435,
      "over_odds": 435,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1828,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2019,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1829,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.84,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-08",
      "player_name": "Trea Turner",
      "hitter_name": "Trea Turner",
      "hitter_id": 607208,
      "team": "PHI",
      "team_abbr": "PHI",
      "opponent": "TOR",
      "opponent_abbr": "TOR",
      "game_id": 822806,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 555,
      "over_odds": 555,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1986,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2214,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1988,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.58,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-08",
      "player_name": "Adley Rutschman",
      "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman",
      "hitter_id": 668939,
      "team": "BAL",
      "team_abbr": "BAL",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 824829,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "hr_odds": 710,
      "over_odds": 710,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2232,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2001,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 44.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-08",
      "player_name": "Zach Neto",
      "hitter_name": "Zach Neto",
      "hitter_id": 687263,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "HOU",
      "opponent_abbr": "HOU",
      "game_id": 824025,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 490,
      "over_odds": 490,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1785,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1966,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1786,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 41.35,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-06-08",
      "player_name": "Jo Adell",
      "hitter_name": "Jo Adell",
      "hitter_id": 666176,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "HOU",
      "opponent_abbr": "HOU",
      "game_id": 824025,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 415,
      "over_odds": 415,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1594,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1736,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1595,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 38.82,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Gunnar Henderson",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 455,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2186,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0003,
        "high_upside_score": 52.6
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Brent Rooker",
        "team": "ATH",
        "opponent": "MIL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 350,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2206,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez",
        "team": "CLE",
        "opponent": "NYY",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 395,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2161,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 51.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Cody Bellinger",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "CLE",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 470,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2025,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 49.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.",
        "team": "NYY",
        "opponent": "CLE",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 430,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1855,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 46.65
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Bryce Harper",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "TOR",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 435,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1828,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.84
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Trea Turner",
        "team": "PHI",
        "opponent": "TOR",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 555,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1986,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 44.58
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Adley Rutschman",
        "team": "BAL",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 710,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 44.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Zach Neto",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "HOU",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 490,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1785,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 41.35
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jo Adell",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "HOU",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 415,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1594,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 38.82
      }
    ]
  }
}