Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs
Home runs · three lanes per row.
Every hitter in the saved HR market-comparison artifact, shown as a dense baseball-data board. The strip compares Palantir, Fangorn, and Valinor; the chips disclose lineup, health, sample-size, park, weather, and recent-form context.
HR BOARD 2026-06-15 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay
PALANTIR production
FANGORN nonlinear lane
VALINOR calibrated lane
LINEUP FILTER armed; waiting on confirmed lineups
Lane Health
2026-06-15
Palantir
5871 props
Brier 0.127
ECE 0.006
14d stable
Fangorn
5871 props
Brier 0.127
ECE 0.008
14d stable
Valinor
1176 props
Brier 0.125
ECE 0.013
sample building
Model Lane
Home Runs
Choose which Mithrandir probability lane drives this board. The URL stores the selected lane, so links stay shareable.
Lineups not posted
The in-lineup filter is armed, but no confirmed lineup artifact exists for this date yet. The board is showing the projected pool honestly.
Home-run board
| # | Player | Matchup | Sim | Implied | Gap | Three lanes · P/F/V | Spread | Park | Weather | Recent | Best line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 |
Cj Abrams
WSH
Lineup pending
|
WSH vs KCMitch Spence · slot 1 |
26.0%Fangorn | 13.9%market | +11.5pp |
P
23.2
F
26.0
V
26.0
|
2.8pp | 1.013xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 590 avg 3 books |
| 02 |
Yandy Díaz
TB
Lineup pending
|
TB vs LADEric Lauer · slot 2 |
26.0%Fangorn | 14.8%market | +10.6pp |
P
22.6
F
26.0
V
26.0
|
3.4pp | 0.970xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 550 avg 3 books |
| 03 |
José Tena
WSH
Lineup pending
|
WSH vs KCMitch Spence · slot 6 |
17.2%Fangorn | 7.7%market | +9.2pp |
P
14.6
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
2.6pp | 1.013xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 04 |
James Wood
WSH
Lineup pending
|
WSH vs KCMitch Spence · slot 2 |
26.0%Fangorn | 16.4%market | +8.9pp |
P
23.1
F
26.0
V
26.0
|
2.9pp | 1.013xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 485 avg 3 books |
| 05 |
Brandon Marsh
PHI
Lineup pending
|
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 6 |
17.9%Fangorn | 11.0%market | +6.6pp |
P
16.3
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
1.6pp | 1.030xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 780 avg 3 books |
| 06 |
Spencer Horwitz
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 6 |
17.2%Fangorn | 11.3%market | +5.5pp |
P
16.3
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
0.9pp | 1.016xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 755 avg 3 books |
| 07 |
Keibert Ruiz
WSH
Lineup pending
|
WSH vs KCMitch Spence · slot 5 |
15.5%Fangorn | 9.8%market | +5.3pp |
P
14.6
F
15.5
V
15.5
|
0.9pp | 1.013xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 880 avg 3 books |
| 08 |
Nolan Schanuel
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 7 |
13.4%Fangorn | 8.5%market | +4.5pp |
P
13.0
F
13.4
V
13.4
|
0.4pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 1035 avg 3 books |
| 09 |
Ryan O'Hearn
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 3 |
17.9%Fangorn | 13.0%market | +4.4pp |
P
19.2
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
1.3pp | 1.016xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 640 avg 3 books |
| 10 |
Luis García Jr.
WSH
Lineup pending
|
WSH vs KCMitch Spence · slot 4 |
17.2%Fangorn | 12.4%market | +4.3pp |
P
19.2
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
2.0pp | 1.013xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 675 avg 3 books |
| 11 |
Willi Castro
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 1 |
14.2%Fangorn | 9.9%market | +4.0pp |
P
15.9
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
1.7pp | 1.018xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 875 avg 3 books |
| 12 |
Yoán Moncada
LAA
IL60
|
LAA vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 6 |
17.2%Fangorn | 12.8%market | +4.0pp |
P
17.9
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
0.7pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 655 avg 3 books |
| 13 |
Jakob Marsee
MIA
Lineup pending
|
MIA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 2 |
14.2%Fangorn | 10.1%market | +3.8pp |
P
16.3
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
2.1pp | 1.030xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 855 avg 3 books |
| 14 |
Dansby Swanson
CHC
Lineup pending
|
CHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 6 |
17.2%Fangorn | 13.1%market | +3.6pp |
P
17.8
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
0.6pp | 1.018xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 635 avg 3 books |
| 15 | IL10 | SD vs STLDustin May · slot 7 |
13.4%Fangorn | 9.6%market | +3.4pp |
P
14.2
F
13.4
V
13.4
|
0.8pp | 0.993xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 905 avg 3 books |
| 16 |
Alec Bohm
PHI
Lineup pending
|
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 5 |
14.2%Fangorn | 10.7%market | +3.2pp |
P
15.3
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
1.1pp | 1.030xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 805 avg 3 books |
| 17 |
Daylen Lile
WSH
Lineup pending
|
WSH vs KCMitch Spence · slot 3 |
13.4%Fangorn | 11.1%market | +1.9pp |
P
22.6
F
13.4
V
13.4
|
9.2pp | 1.013xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 770 avg 3 books |
| 18 |
Ian Happ
CHC
Lineup pending
|
CHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 4 |
17.2%Fangorn | 14.8%market | +1.8pp |
P
20.3
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
3.1pp | 1.018xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 550 avg 3 books |
| 19 |
Bryan Reynolds
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 5 |
15.5%Fangorn | 13.5%market | +1.5pp |
P
18.6
F
15.5
V
15.5
|
3.1pp | 1.016xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 615 avg 3 books |
| 20 |
Ryan Jeffers
MIN
IL10
|
MIN vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 6 |
14.2%Fangorn | 12.4%market | +1.3pp |
P
14.4
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
0.2pp | 0.995xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 675 avg 3 books |
| 21 |
Trea Turner
PHI
Lineup pending
|
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 1 |
15.7%Fangorn | 14.1%market | +1.0pp |
P
19.9
F
15.7
V
15.7
|
4.1pp | 1.030xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 580 avg 3 books |
| 22 |
Brenton Doyle
COL
IL10
|
COL vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 5 |
14.2%Fangorn | 12.7%market | +1.0pp |
P
17.8
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
3.6pp | 1.018xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 655 avg 3 books |
| 23 |
Ezequiel Tovar
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 4 |
14.2%Fangorn | 12.9%market | +0.8pp |
P
19.2
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
5.0pp | 1.018xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 645 avg 3 books |
| 24 |
Jordan Beck
COL
IL10
|
COL vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 7 |
11.1%Fangorn | 10.0%market | +0.8pp |
P
19.6
F
11.1
V
11.1
|
8.5pp | 1.018xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 870 avg 3 books |
| 25 |
Alex Bregman
CHC
Lineup pending
|
CHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 5 |
15.7%Fangorn | 14.6%market | +0.6pp |
P
16.9
F
15.7
V
15.7
|
1.2pp | 1.018xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 560 avg 3 books |
| 26 |
Josh Bell
MIN
Lineup pending
|
MIN vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 4 |
15.7%Fangorn | 14.7%market | +0.5pp |
P
17.5
F
15.7
V
15.7
|
1.7pp | 0.995xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 555 avg 3 books |
| 27 |
Freddie Freeman
LAD
Lineup pending
|
LAD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 2 |
17.2%Fangorn | 16.2%market | +0.4pp |
P
20.7
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
3.5pp | 0.970xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 495 avg 3 books |
| 28 | OUT | SD vs STLDustin May · slot 4 |
14.2%Fangorn | 14.4%market | -0.7pp |
P
16.4
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
2.2pp | 0.993xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 570 avg 3 books |
| 29 | Lineup pending | SD vs STLDustin May · slot 3 |
13.4%Fangorn | 15.7%market | -2.9pp |
P
18.5
F
13.4
V
13.4
|
5.1pp | 0.993xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 515 avg 3 books |
| 30 |
Shohei Ohtani
LAD
Lineup pending
|
LAD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 1 |
17.9%Fangorn | 29.3%market | -12.4pp |
P
18.5
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
0.6pp | 0.970xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 230 avg 3 books |
| 31 |
Hunter Goodman
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs CHCShota Imanaga · slot 2 |
26.0%Fangorn | 18.5%market | +6.7pp |
P
22.3
F
26.0
V
26.0
|
3.6pp | 1.018xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 420 avg 3 books |
| 32 |
Nico Hoerner
CHC
Lineup pending
|
CHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 1 |
11.1%Fangorn | 7.7%market | +3.1pp |
P
9.8
F
11.1
V
11.1
|
1.3pp | 1.018xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 33 |
Jake Mangum
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 1 |
10.3%Fangorn | 7.7%market | +2.3pp |
P
10.5
F
10.3
V
10.3
|
0.2pp | 1.016xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 34 |
Xavier Edwards
MIA
Lineup pending
|
MIA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 1 |
9.1%Fangorn | 7.7%market | +1.1pp |
P
8.8
F
9.1
V
9.1
|
0.2pp | 1.030xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 35 |
Michael Busch
CHC
Lineup pending
|
CHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen · slot 3 |
19.6%Fangorn | 17.8%market | +1.1pp |
P
21.8
F
19.6
V
19.6
|
2.2pp | 1.018xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 440 avg 3 books |
| 36 |
Zach Neto
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 1 |
17.9%Fangorn | 16.3%market | +1.0pp |
P
19.8
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
1.9pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 490 avg 3 books |
| 37 | Lineup pending | SD vs STLDustin May · slot 1 |
17.9%Fangorn | 16.4%market | +0.8pp |
P
19.1
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
1.2pp | 0.993xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 485 avg 3 books |
| 38 |
Agustín Ramírez
MIA
OUT
|
MIA vs PHIZack Wheeler · slot 4 |
14.2%Fangorn | 14.2%market | -0.5pp |
P
16.8
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
2.5pp | 1.030xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 580 avg 3 books |
| 39 |
Logan O'Hoppe
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 5 |
15.5%Fangorn | 15.5%market | -0.5pp |
P
14.5
F
15.5
V
15.5
|
1.0pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 525 avg 3 books |
| 40 |
Mookie Betts
LAD
Lineup pending
|
LAD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 5 |
15.5%Fangorn | 15.7%market | -0.8pp |
P
18.2
F
15.5
V
15.5
|
2.7pp | 0.970xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 515 avg 3 books |
| 41 |
Mike Trout
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 2 |
17.9%Fangorn | 18.8%market | -1.5pp |
P
19.0
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
1.1pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 415 avg 3 books |
| 42 |
Bryce Harper
PHI
Lineup pending
|
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 2 |
17.9%Fangorn | 19.1%market | -1.9pp |
P
22.2
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
4.3pp | 1.030xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 405 avg 3 books |
| 43 |
Adolis García
PHI
IL60
|
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 4 |
15.5%Fangorn | 17.4%market | -2.5pp |
P
16.9
F
15.5
V
15.5
|
1.4pp | 1.030xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 455 avg 3 books |
| 44 |
Jo Adell
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 4 |
17.2%Fangorn | 19.1%market | -2.6pp |
P
17.1
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
0.2pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 405 avg 3 books |
| 45 |
Royce Lewis
MIN
Lineup pending
|
MIN vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 5 |
14.2%Fangorn | 16.2%market | -2.6pp |
P
14.2
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
0.0pp | 0.995xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 495 avg 3 books |
| 46 |
Brandon Lowe
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 4 |
17.9%Fangorn | 19.9%market | -2.7pp |
P
21.3
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
3.4pp | 1.016xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 385 avg 3 books |
| 47 | Lineup pending | SD vs STLDustin May · slot 2 |
15.7%Fangorn | 18.4%market | -3.3pp |
P
18.0
F
15.7
V
15.7
|
2.3pp | 0.993xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 425 avg 3 books |
| 48 |
Kyle Tucker
LAD
Lineup pending
|
LAD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 3 |
15.5%Fangorn | 18.6%market | -3.7pp |
P
18.8
F
15.5
V
15.5
|
3.3pp | 0.970xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 420 avg 3 books |
| 49 |
Jorge Soler
LAA
IL10
|
LAA vs AZRyne Nelson · slot 3 |
13.4%Fangorn | 16.8%market | -4.0pp |
P
14.1
F
13.4
V
13.4
|
0.7pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 475 avg 3 books |
| 50 | IL10 | LAD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 4 |
14.2%Fangorn | 17.9%market | -4.3pp |
P
15.9
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
1.6pp | 0.970xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 440 avg 3 books |
| 51 |
Byron Buxton
MIN
Lineup pending
|
MIN vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 3 |
17.9%Fangorn | 21.5%market | -4.3pp |
P
18.4
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
0.5pp | 0.995xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 350 avg 3 books |
| 52 | Lineup pending | TB vs LADEric Lauer · slot 4 |
17.9%Fangorn | 22.2%market | -5.1pp |
P
19.8
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
1.8pp | 0.970xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 335 avg 3 books |
| 53 |
Max Muncy
LAD
Lineup pending
|
LAD vs TBNick Martinez · slot 6 |
13.6%Fangorn | 18.8%market | -5.9pp |
P
14.9
F
13.6
V
13.6
|
1.3pp | 0.970xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 415 avg 3 books |
| 54 |
Luke Keaschall
MIN
Lineup pending
|
MIN vs TEXMacKenzie Gore · slot 1 |
4.7%Fangorn | 11.0%market | -6.7pp |
P
14.1
F
4.7
V
4.7
|
9.4pp | 0.995xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 775 avg 3 books |
| 55 |
Marcell Ozuna
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs ATHJ.t. Ginn · slot 2 |
14.2%Fangorn | 20.5%market | -7.1pp |
P
17.6
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
3.4pp | 1.016xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 370 avg 3 books |
| 56 |
Kyle Schwarber
PHI
Lineup pending
|
PHI vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 3 |
17.9%Fangorn | 26.5%market | -9.5pp |
P
20.3
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
2.4pp | 1.030xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 265 avg 3 books |
Data context
779 sample flagsStatus1618roster/transaction rows
Lineups0confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows
Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.