Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-06-15 Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-15

Michael Busch

CHC · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 3 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen
Sample1349.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 21.8
F 19.6
V 19.6
Model 19.6% Market 17.8% Gap +1.0pp
FanDuel 440 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 75.5
F 76.1 EXPERIMENTAL
V 75.1 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 75.5% Market 72.9% Gap +2.5pp
FanDuel -315 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.3%
78
Exit velocity88.5
50
Hard-hit%43.2%
66
xBA0.334
60
xSLG0.592
72
xwOBA0.355
82
BB%14.7%
95 +23 vs proj
Bat speed65.4
8
K%22.3%
49
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg6.0 · 1B
97
Range Runs4.4 · 1B
93
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.0 · 1B
15
Sprint Speed25.8 · 1B
16
SB Success Rate100.0% · 1B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.0%
84
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.7%
44
Correct Decisions67.9%
67
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline106
76
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.276 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.295 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.360 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.330
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.396
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.315 to 0.379
RegressionNegative · -0.027
Opposing pitcherMichael Lorenzen
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-15
Palantir 5871 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 5871 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)