Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-06-15 Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-15

Alex Bregman

CHC · Hitter · bats R · age 32
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen
Sample4874.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.9
F 15.7
V 15.7
Model 18.8% Market 14.6% Gap +3.7pp
FanDuel 560 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 77.5
F 76.9 EXPERIMENTAL
V 76.3 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 77.5% Market 75.0% Gap +2.5pp
FanDuel -355 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.5%
44
Exit velocity88.6
52
Hard-hit%40.3%
53
xBA0.305
30
xSLG0.464
33
xwOBA0.315
55
BB%9.7%
64
Bat speed68.1
30
K%16.7%
80
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength81.4 · 3B
15
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 3B
86
Range Runs2.1 · 3B
74
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.5 · 3B
25
Sprint Speed26.0 · 3B
19
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.4%
94
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.3%
22
Correct Decisions68.9%
76
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
78
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.269 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.261 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.295
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.362 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.353
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.336
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.299 to 0.370
RegressionNegative · -0.040
Opposing pitcherMichael Lorenzen
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-15
Palantir 5871 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 5871 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)