Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-06-15 Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-15

Nico Hoerner

CHC · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen
Sample2895.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 9.8
F 11.1
V 11.1
Model 8.9% Market 7.7% Gap +0.9pp
DraftKings 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 80.5
F 79.3 EXPERIMENTAL
V 78.9 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 80.5% Market 77.9% Gap +2.6pp
FanDuel -425 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.5%
8
Exit velocity85.9
24
Hard-hit%28.7%
12
xBA0.319
46
xSLG0.406
16
xwOBA0.332
70
BB%9.6%
61 +42 vs proj
Bat speed66.9
20
K%6.9%
100
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 2B
57
Arm Strength84.0 · 2B
35
Outs Above Avg7.0 · 2B
98
Range Runs4.7 · 2B
95
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.4 · 2B
92
SB Success Rate100.0% · 2B
95
Sprint Speed28.3 · 2B
78
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.8%
62
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.5%
15
Correct Decisions63.9%
29
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
40
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.336 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.230
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.333 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.315
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.381
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.292 to 0.361
RegressionNegative · -0.010
Opposing pitcherMichael Lorenzen
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-15
Palantir 5871 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 5871 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)