Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-07-16 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home runs · three lanes per row.

Every hitter in the saved HR market-comparison artifact, shown as a dense baseball-data board. The strip compares Palantir, Fangorn, and Valinor; the chips disclose lineup, health, sample-size, park, weather, and recent-form context.

Rows
5
Matched
15
Lineups
18
HR BOARD 2026-07-16 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-07-16
Palantir 9378 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9378 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3783 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.006 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose which Mithrandir probability lane drives this board. The URL stores the selected lane, so links stay shareable.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Bo Bichette NYM
IN
NYM vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 3
 15.0%Fangorn 11.7%market +5.8pp
P 18.7
F 15.0
V 11.1
7.6pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 725 avg 3 books
02
Jorge Polanco NYM
IN
NYM vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 4
 15.0%Fangorn 16.2%market +1.1pp
P 17.2
F 15.0
V 14.8
2.3pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 495 avg 3 books
03
Marcus Semien NYM
Lineup pending
NYM vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 5
 13.5%Fangorn 13.3%market -0.4pp
P 13.7
F 13.5
V 13.7
0.2pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 625 avg 3 books
04
Francisco Lindor NYM
IN
NYM vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 2
 15.0%Fangorn 18.9%market -1.7pp
P 19.1
F 15.0
V 15.2
4.1pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 410 avg 3 books
05
Juan Soto NYM
IN
NYM vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 1
 18.1%Fangorn 22.9%market +2.2pp
P 18.5
F 18.1
V 15.0
3.5pp 1.019xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 320 avg 3 books

Data context

773 sample flags
Status1692roster/transaction rows
Lineups18confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.