Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-06-15 Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-15

Bryce Harper

PHI · Hitter · bats L · age 34
IN · 2 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupPHI vs MIARyan Gusto
Sample6681.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 22.2
F 17.9
V 17.9
Model 22.1% Market 18.7% Gap +2.7pp
FanDuel 415 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 48.0
F 48.6 EXPERIMENTAL
V 47.6 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 48.0% Market 46.8% Gap +2.7pp
FanDuel 105 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 32.4
F 33.0 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 32.4% Market -- Gap +0.1pp
FanDuel 210 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.7%
89
Exit velocity90.4
79
Hard-hit%46.2%
79
xBA0.371
89
xSLG0.716
94
xwOBA0.409
98
BB%14.8%
95 +15 vs proj
Bat speed72.5
84
K%19.1%
68 +22 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg-9.0 · 1B
2
Range Runs-6.5 · 1B
3
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.5 · 1B
26
SB Success Rate60.0% · 1B
11
Sprint Speed27.1 · 1B
42
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.4%
30
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.1%
91
Correct Decisions66.2%
49
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
58
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.350 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.279 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.287
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.328 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.377
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.321 to 0.414
RegressionPositive · 0.016
Opposing pitcherRyan Gusto
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-15
Palantir 5871 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 5871 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)