Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-06-15 Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-15

Fernando Tatis Jr.

SD · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 1 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupSD vs STLDustin May
Sample2869.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 19.1
F 17.9
V 17.9
Model 18.7% Market 16.4% Gap +1.6pp
FanDuel 485 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 79.2
F 81.0 EXPERIMENTAL
V 79.6 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 79.2% Market 76.5% Gap +2.7pp
FanDuel -390 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 26.1
F 27.9 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 26.1% Market -- Gap +15.6pp
FanDuel 140 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.2%
76
Exit velocity90.6
80
Hard-hit%51.9%
93
xBA0.376
92
xSLG0.548
62
xwOBA0.349
79
BB%9.8%
65
Bat speed72.6
85
K%21.9%
52
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · RF
50
Arm Strength100.8 · RF
96
Outs Above Avg5.0 · RF
97
Range Runs6.7 · RF
97
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.6 · RF
6
Bolts9.0 · RF
72
SB Success Rate63.2% · RF
15
Sprint Speed28.8 · RF
89
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.4%
54
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.7%
89
Correct Decisions69.0%
77
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
77
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.290 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.255 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.334 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.321
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.355
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.337 to 0.417
RegressionPositive · 0.009
Opposing pitcherDustin May
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-15
Palantir 5871 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 5871 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)