Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-06-15 Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-15

Jackson Merrill

SD · Hitter · bats L · age 23
IN · 3 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupSD vs STLDustin May
Sample1250.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 18.5
F 13.4
V 13.4
Model 19.9% Market 15.5% Gap +3.8pp
FanDuel 520 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 81.3
F 81.3 EXPERIMENTAL
V 80.5 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 81.3% Market 78.6% Gap +2.7pp
FanDuel -445 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 28.9
F 28.9 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 28.9% Market -- Gap +4.4pp
FanDuel 200 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.4%
68 -21 vs proj
Exit velocity88.9
55
Hard-hit%48.0%
85 +16 vs proj
xBA0.327
55
xSLG0.588
71
xwOBA0.318
59 -32 vs proj
BB%8.1%
42 +18 vs proj
Bat speed71.5
75
K%23.7%
39 -28 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.3 · CF
89
Arm Strength95.6 · CF
75
Outs Above Avg1.0 · CF
80
Range Runs1.4 · CF
72
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.3 · CF
92
Bolts5.0 · CF
55
SB Success Rate87.5% · CF
76
Sprint Speed28.7 · CF
87
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.1%
23
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.6%
92
Correct Decisions67.2%
60
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
54
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.259 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.282 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.289
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.270 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.327
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.394
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.332 to 0.415
RegressionPositive · 0.023
Opposing pitcherDustin May
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-15
Palantir 5871 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 5871 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)