Mithrandir Metrics
COL 2026-06-15 Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-15

Willi Castro

COL · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCOL vs CHCShota Imanaga
Sample2534.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.9
F 14.2
V 14.2
Model 17.9% Market 9.9% Gap +7.6pp
DraftKings 875 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 68.9
F 68.3 EXPERIMENTAL
V 67.7 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 68.9% Market 66.8% Gap +2.1pp
FanDuel -225 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.7%
29 -16 vs proj
Exit velocity87.5
39
Hard-hit%42.9%
65 +26 vs proj
xBA0.312
38
xSLG0.478
40
xwOBA0.290
32 -35 vs proj
BB%8.5%
47
Bat speed70.9
71
K%25.2%
33
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · 2B
78
Arm Strength92.9 · 2B
90
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 2B
42
Range Runs-1.2 · 2B
33
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.1 · 2B
35
Bolts1.0 · 2B
17
SB Success Rate83.3% · 2B
65
Sprint Speed28.2 · 2B
75
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 57.1%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.8%
Small sample
Correct Decisions62.9%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.282 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.275 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.275
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.357 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.347
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.346
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.304 to 0.377
RegressionNegative · -0.067
Opposing pitcherShota Imanaga
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-15
Palantir 5871 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 5871 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)