Mithrandir Metrics
MIA 2026-06-15 Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-15

Jakob Marsee

MIA · Hitter · bats L · age 25
IN · 2 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupMIA vs PHIZack Wheeler
Sample449.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.3
F 14.2
V 14.2
Model 15.2% Market 10.1% Gap +4.7pp
DraftKings 855 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 72.7
F 73.3 EXPERIMENTAL
V 72.3 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 72.7% Market 70.4% Gap +2.3pp
FanDuel -275 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 18.5
F 19.1 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 18.5% Market -- Gap +4.0pp
FanDuel 500 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%2.0%
13 -35 vs proj
Exit velocity85.1
16
Hard-hit%35.6%
31
xBA0.306
31
xSLG0.431
23
xwOBA0.309
50
BB%13.6%
91 +55 vs proj
Bat speed67.5
24
K%22.8%
46 -19 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.9 · CF
23
Arm Strength95.0 · CF
72
Outs Above Avg4.0 · CF
95
Range Runs4.3 · CF
90
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.6 · CF
63
SB Success Rate66.7% · CF
20
Sprint Speed27.9 · CF
66
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 73.8%
89
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.6%
44
Correct Decisions68.4%
71
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
82
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.290 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.294 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.284
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.342 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.302
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.339
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.259 to 0.368
RegressionPositive · 0.001
Opposing pitcherZack Wheeler
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-15
Palantir 5871 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 5871 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)