Mithrandir Metrics
COL 2026-06-15 Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-15

Ezequiel Tovar

COL · Hitter · bats R · age 25
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCOL vs CHCShota Imanaga
Sample1867.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 19.2
F 14.2
V 14.2
Model 21.5% Market 12.9% Gap +8.1pp
FanDuel 645 tracking Open board
Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.3%
66
Exit velocity87.4
38
Hard-hit%36.6%
35 -17 vs proj
xBA0.338
64
xSLG0.576
68
xwOBA0.299
39
BB%5.9%
19
Bat speed69.2
45
K%27.8%
21
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · SS
54
Arm Strength90.2 · SS
80
Outs Above Avg0.0 · SS
42
Range Runs0.1 · SS
49
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.8 · SS
71
Sprint Speed27.9 · SS
66
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 52.4%
6
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 17.9%
92
Correct Decisions63.7%
27
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
24
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.266 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.301 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.343 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.275
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.366
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.282 to 0.358
RegressionNegative · -0.001
Opposing pitcherShota Imanaga
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-15
Palantir 5871 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 5871 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)