Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-06-15 Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-15

Dansby Swanson

CHC · Hitter · bats R · age 32
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCHC vs COLMichael Lorenzen
Sample4956.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.8
F 17.2
V 17.2
Model 17.9% Market 13.2% Gap +4.3pp
DraftKings 635 tracking Open board
Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.0%
35 -31 vs proj
Exit velocity89.2
58
Hard-hit%41.8%
59
xBA0.269
9
xSLG0.470
36
xwOBA0.285
28 -40 vs proj
BB%11.9%
82 +36 vs proj
Bat speed69.1
43
K%25.2%
33
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · SS
79
Arm Strength85.6 · SS
48
Outs Above Avg7.0 · SS
98
Range Runs5.3 · SS
97
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.9 · SS
96
Bolts1.0 · SS
17
SB Success Rate100.0% · SS
95
Sprint Speed28.2 · SS
75
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.0%
79
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 18.9%
91
Correct Decisions71.5%
92
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline111
94
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.264 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.267 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.245
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.326 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.359
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.377
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.281 to 0.377
RegressionNegative · -0.017
Opposing pitcherMichael Lorenzen
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-15
Palantir 5871 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 5871 props Brier 0.127 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)