{
  "date": "2026-09-24",
  "generated_at": "2026-09-24T23:43:28.434253",
  "artifact_type": "home_run_high_upside_board",
  "description": "Separate high-upside HR board built from the tail-risk layer. It is not a replacement for the core HR board and is not simply highest raw HR probability.",
  "scoring": {
    "formula": "100 * (0.40*uplift_component + 0.30*base_component + 0.20*odds_component + 0.10*active_component)",
    "base_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.10) / 0.10, 0, 1)",
    "uplift_component": "clamp(tail_uplift / 0.004, 0, 1)",
    "odds_component": "prefers roughly +180 to +450 HR odds with a fade above that",
    "active_component": "1.0 only when tail_layer_active_flag == 1"
  },
  "guardrails": {
    "main_board": {
      "requires_tail_layer_active": true,
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.1,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0015,
      "minimum_over_odds_if_available": 160
    },
    "watchlist": {
      "minimum_base_probability": 0.075,
      "minimum_tail_uplift": 0.0005,
      "allows_longer_odds_alternatives": true
    }
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "projection_count": 108,
    "odds_matched_count": 58,
    "tail_active_count": 0,
    "tail_active_rate": 0.0,
    "strict_pool_count": 0,
    "watch_pool_count": 20,
    "fallback_used": true
  },
  "main_board": [],
  "extended_watchlist": [
    {
      "date": "2026-09-24",
      "player_name": "Ketel Marte",
      "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte",
      "hitter_id": 606466,
      "team": "AZ",
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 824298,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 380,
      "over_odds": 380,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2135,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2402,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2137,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 52.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-24",
      "player_name": "Juan Soto",
      "hitter_name": "Juan Soto",
      "hitter_id": 665742,
      "team": "NYM",
      "team_abbr": "NYM",
      "opponent": "TEX",
      "opponent_abbr": "TEX",
      "game_id": 822842,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 320,
      "over_odds": 320,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2098,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2355,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.21,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 48.47,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-24",
      "player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
      "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman",
      "hitter_id": 518692,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 823895,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 495,
      "over_odds": 495,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2059,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2305,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.206,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 47.4,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-24",
      "player_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
      "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
      "hitter_id": 606192,
      "team": "LAD",
      "team_abbr": "LAD",
      "opponent": "SD",
      "opponent_abbr": "SD",
      "game_id": 823895,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 450,
      "over_odds": 450,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1814,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2001,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1815,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.42,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-24",
      "player_name": "Carlos Santana",
      "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana",
      "hitter_id": 467793,
      "team": "AZ",
      "team_abbr": "AZ",
      "opponent": "COL",
      "opponent_abbr": "COL",
      "game_id": 824298,
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 610,
      "over_odds": 610,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2063,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2311,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.2065,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 45.0,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside; Lower-lineup upside profile"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-24",
      "player_name": "Ezequiel Tovar",
      "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar",
      "hitter_id": 678662,
      "team": "COL",
      "team_abbr": "COL",
      "opponent": "AZ",
      "opponent_abbr": "AZ",
      "game_id": 824298,
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 645,
      "over_odds": 645,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1981,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2208,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1982,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 43.43,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-24",
      "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
      "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
      "hitter_id": 665487,
      "team": "SD",
      "team_abbr": "SD",
      "opponent": "LAD",
      "opponent_abbr": "LAD",
      "game_id": 823895,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1756,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1931,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1758,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 41.88,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-24",
      "player_name": "Elly De La Cruz",
      "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz",
      "hitter_id": 682829,
      "team": "CIN",
      "team_abbr": "CIN",
      "opponent": "ATL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATL",
      "game_id": 824866,
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 540,
      "over_odds": 540,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1795,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1978,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1796,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 37.85,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-24",
      "player_name": "Mike Trout",
      "hitter_name": "Mike Trout",
      "hitter_id": 545361,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 823087,
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 425,
      "over_odds": 425,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1526,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1656,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1527,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 36.78,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    },
    {
      "date": "2026-09-24",
      "player_name": "Jorge Soler",
      "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler",
      "hitter_id": 624585,
      "team": "LAA",
      "team_abbr": "LAA",
      "opponent": "SEA",
      "opponent_abbr": "SEA",
      "game_id": 823087,
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "hr_odds": 485,
      "over_odds": 485,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1533,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.1664,
      "tail_adjusted_prob_1_plus_hr_v3": 0.1535,
      "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
      "tail_multiplier": 1.0,
      "framing_component": 1.0,
      "tail_layer_active_flag": 0,
      "game_cluster_flag": 0,
      "high_upside_score": 35.19,
      "board_tier": "",
      "reason_for_inclusion": "Playable base HR rate; Long odds with asymmetric upside"
    }
  ],
  "site_preview": {
    "main_board": [],
    "watchlist": [
      {
        "player_name": "Ketel Marte",
        "team": "AZ",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 380,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2135,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 52.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Juan Soto",
        "team": "NYM",
        "opponent": "TEX",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 320,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2098,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 48.47
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Freddie Freeman",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 495,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2059,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 47.4
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez",
        "team": "LAD",
        "opponent": "SD",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 450,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1814,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 45.42
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Carlos Santana",
        "team": "AZ",
        "opponent": "COL",
        "lineup_slot": 5,
        "hr_odds": 610,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2063,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 45.0
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Ezequiel Tovar",
        "team": "COL",
        "opponent": "AZ",
        "lineup_slot": 4,
        "hr_odds": 645,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1981,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 43.43
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.",
        "team": "SD",
        "opponent": "LAD",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1756,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 41.88
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Elly De La Cruz",
        "team": "CIN",
        "opponent": "ATL",
        "lineup_slot": 1,
        "hr_odds": 540,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1795,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 37.85
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Mike Trout",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 2,
        "hr_odds": 425,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1526,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0001,
        "high_upside_score": 36.78
      },
      {
        "player_name": "Jorge Soler",
        "team": "LAA",
        "opponent": "SEA",
        "lineup_slot": 3,
        "hr_odds": 485,
        "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1533,
        "tail_uplift": 0.0002,
        "high_upside_score": 35.19
      }
    ]
  }
}