Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs
Home runs · three lanes per row.
Every hitter in the saved HR market-comparison artifact, shown as a dense baseball-data board. The strip compares Palantir, Fangorn, and Valinor; the chips disclose lineup, health, sample-size, park, weather, and recent-form context.
HR BOARD 2026-06-01 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay
PALANTIR production
FANGORN nonlinear lane
VALINOR calibrated lane
LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health
2026-06-01
Palantir
3096 props
Brier 0.126
ECE 0.030
14d stable
Fangorn
3096 props
Brier 0.126
ECE 0.009
14d error falling
Valinor
1176 props
Brier 0.125
ECE 0.013
14d stable
Model Lane
Home Runs
Choose which Mithrandir probability lane drives this board. The URL stores the selected lane, so links stay shareable.
Home-run board
| # | Player | Matchup | Sim | Implied | Gap | Three lanes · P/F/V | Spread | Park | Weather | Recent | Best line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 |
Cj Abrams
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 1 |
17.9%Valinor | 13.9%market | +6.0pp |
P
21.4
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
3.5pp | 1.007xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 590 avg 3 books |
| 02 |
Daylen Lile
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 3 |
11.4%Valinor | 11.1%market | +5.8pp |
P
20.4
F
11.4
V
11.4
|
9.0pp | 1.007xHR pf | Neutralweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 770 avg 3 books |
| 03 | Lineup pending | CWS vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 4 |
17.9%Valinor | 13.0%market | +5.7pp |
P
18.2
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
0.3pp | 0.949xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 640 avg 3 books |
| 04 |
Luis García Jr.
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 4 |
15.7%Valinor | 12.4%market | +5.5pp |
P
17.6
F
15.7
V
15.7
|
1.9pp | 1.007xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 675 avg 3 books |
| 05 | Lineup pending | AZ vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 3 |
17.9%Valinor | 9.3%market | +5.4pp |
P
19.0
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
1.1pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 935 avg 3 books |
| 06 |
Alec Burleson
STL
Lineup pending
|
STL vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 3 |
17.9%Valinor | 13.3%market | +5.1pp |
P
18.9
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
1.0pp | 0.976xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 625 avg 3 books |
| 07 |
Keibert Ruiz
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 5 |
14.2%Valinor | 9.8%market | +4.9pp |
P
13.2
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
1.1pp | 1.007xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 880 avg 3 books |
| 08 |
Evan Carter
TEX
Lineup pending
|
TEX vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 6 |
17.9%Valinor | 11.0%market | +4.2pp |
P
19.2
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
1.3pp | 0.976xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 780 avg 3 books |
| 09 |
Bo Bichette
NYM
Lineup pending
|
NYM vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 3 |
17.2%Valinor | 11.7%market | +4.1pp |
P
17.4
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
0.2pp | 0.898xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 725 avg 3 books |
| 10 |
Wyatt Langford
TEX
Lineup pending
|
TEX vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 1 |
17.2%Valinor | 14.4%market | +4.0pp |
P
20.0
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
2.7pp | 0.976xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 570 avg 3 books |
| 11 |
Edouard Julien
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 6 |
13.4%Valinor | 10.9%market | +3.8pp |
P
12.5
F
13.4
V
13.4
|
0.9pp | 0.972xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 790 avg 3 books |
| 12 |
Jakob Marsee
MIA
IN
|
MIA vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 2 |
14.2%Valinor | 10.1%market | +3.6pp |
P
15.2
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
1.0pp | 1.007xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 855 avg 3 books |
| 13 |
Brandon Nimmo
TEX
Lineup pending
|
TEX vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 3 |
17.9%Valinor | 15.6%market | +3.6pp |
P
20.2
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
2.3pp | 0.976xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 515 avg 3 books |
| 14 |
Marcus Semien
NYM
Lineup pending
|
NYM vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 5 |
11.4%Valinor | 13.2%market | +3.5pp |
P
13.8
F
11.4
V
11.4
|
2.4pp | 0.898xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 630 avg 3 books |
| 15 |
Mookie Betts
LAD
Lineup pending
|
LAD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 5 |
17.2%Valinor | 15.9%market | +3.5pp |
P
20.1
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
2.9pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 505 avg 3 books |
| 16 |
Freddie Freeman
LAD
Lineup pending
|
LAD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 2 |
17.2%Valinor | 15.6%market | +3.4pp |
P
20.0
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
2.8pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 515 avg 3 books |
| 17 |
Iván Herrera
STL
Lineup pending
|
STL vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 2 |
17.9%Valinor | 12.5%market | +3.1pp |
P
21.5
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
3.6pp | 0.976xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 670 avg 3 books |
| 18 |
Andy Pages
LAD
Lineup pending
|
LAD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 7 |
13.4%Valinor | 13.4%market | +2.9pp |
P
17.6
F
13.4
V
13.4
|
4.3pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 620 avg 3 books |
| 19 |
Willi Castro
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 1 |
11.4%Valinor | 9.8%market | +2.7pp |
P
11.4
F
11.4
V
11.4
|
0.0pp | 0.972xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 885 avg 3 books |
| 20 | Lineup pending | AZ vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 1 |
17.9%Valinor | 17.5%market | +2.7pp |
P
22.0
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
4.0pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 450 avg 3 books |
| 21 |
Zach Neto
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 1 |
17.9%Valinor | 16.9%market | +2.6pp |
P
21.6
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
3.7pp | 0.972xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 470 avg 3 books |
| 22 |
Ezequiel Tovar
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 4 |
11.1%Valinor | 12.5%market | +2.4pp |
P
13.7
F
11.1
V
11.1
|
2.6pp | 0.972xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 670 avg 3 books |
| 23 |
José Tena
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 6 |
15.7%Valinor | 7.7%market | +2.4pp |
P
13.4
F
15.7
V
15.7
|
2.4pp | 1.007xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 24 |
Brice Turang
MIL
Lineup pending
|
MIL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 1 |
14.2%Valinor | 10.0%market | +2.2pp |
P
14.5
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
0.2pp | 0.933xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 865 avg 3 books |
| 25 |
James Wood
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 2 |
19.6%Valinor | 16.4%market | +2.1pp |
P
21.3
F
19.6
V
19.6
|
1.7pp | 1.007xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 485 avg 3 books |
| 26 |
Joc Pederson
TEX
Lineup pending
|
TEX vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 5 |
14.2%Valinor | 14.1%market | +2.0pp |
P
13.6
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
0.6pp | 0.976xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 580 avg 3 books |
| 27 | Lineup pending | MIL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 3 |
14.2%Valinor | 12.5%market | +1.8pp |
P
14.1
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
0.2pp | 0.933xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 670 avg 3 books |
| 28 |
Edgar Quero
CWS
Lineup pending
|
CWS vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 6 |
11.4%Valinor | 7.7%market | +1.8pp |
P
9.9
F
11.4
V
11.4
|
1.5pp | 0.949xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 29 |
Jorge Soler
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 3 |
14.2%Valinor | 17.3%market | +1.4pp |
P
15.7
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
1.5pp | 0.972xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 455 avg 3 books |
| 30 |
Logan O'Hoppe
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 5 |
17.2%Valinor | 15.8%market | +1.2pp |
P
15.8
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
1.4pp | 0.972xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 510 avg 3 books |
| 31 |
Christian Yelich
MIL
Lineup pending
|
MIL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 2 |
17.9%Valinor | 16.4%market | +1.2pp |
P
20.4
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
2.5pp | 0.933xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 485 avg 3 books |
| 32 |
Victor Scott II
STL
Lineup pending
|
STL vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 1 |
0.0%Valinor | 7.7%market | +1.0pp |
P
7.7
F
0.0
V
0.0
|
7.7pp | 0.976xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 33 |
Jorge Polanco
NYM
Lineup pending
|
NYM vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 4 |
17.2%Valinor | 16.2%market | +0.8pp |
P
17.4
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
0.2pp | 0.898xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 495 avg 3 books |
| 34 |
Kyle Tucker
LAD
Lineup pending
|
LAD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 3 |
14.2%Valinor | 17.5%market | +0.2pp |
P
18.0
F
14.2
V
14.2
|
3.8pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 450 avg 3 books |
| 35 |
Chase Meidroth
CWS
Lineup pending
|
CWS vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 1 |
4.7%Valinor | 7.7%market | -0.4pp |
P
6.8
F
4.7
V
4.7
|
2.0pp | 0.949xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 36 |
Mike Trout
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 2 |
19.6%Valinor | 19.3%market | -0.7pp |
P
20.8
F
19.6
V
19.6
|
1.2pp | 0.972xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 400 avg 3 books |
| 37 |
Ketel Marte
AZ
Lineup pending
|
AZ vs LADEmmet Sheehan · slot 2 |
17.9%Valinor | 20.5%market | -1.4pp |
P
19.8
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
1.9pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 370 avg 3 books |
| 38 |
Jo Adell
LAA
Lineup pending
|
LAA vs COLKyle Freeland · slot 4 |
17.9%Valinor | --market | -2.3pp |
P
19.0
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
1.1pp | 0.972xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 380 avg 3 books |
| 39 |
Jake Burger
TEX
Lineup pending
|
TEX vs STLMichael McGreevy · slot 4 |
13.4%Valinor | --market | -2.8pp |
P
12.6
F
13.4
V
13.4
|
0.8pp | 0.976xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 420 avg 3 books |
| 40 |
Hunter Goodman
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs LAAJosé Soriano · slot 2 |
15.7%Valinor | --market | -3.7pp |
P
16.4
F
15.7
V
15.7
|
0.7pp | 0.972xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 455 avg 3 books |
| 41 |
Xavier Edwards
MIA
IN
|
MIA vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 1 |
4.7%Valinor | --market | -4.1pp |
P
7.1
F
4.7
V
4.7
|
2.4pp | 1.007xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books |
| 42 |
Juan Soto
NYM
Lineup pending
|
NYM vs SEAEmerson Hancock · slot 1 |
17.9%Valinor | --market | -4.3pp |
P
19.1
F
17.9
V
17.9
|
1.2pp | 0.898xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 315 avg 3 books |
| 43 | Lineup pending | CWS vs MINJoe Ryan · slot 3 |
11.4%Valinor | --market | -5.7pp |
P
14.8
F
11.4
V
11.4
|
3.4pp | 0.949xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 330 avg 3 books |
| 44 |
Shohei Ohtani
LAD
Lineup pending
|
LAD vs AZEduardo Rodriguez · slot 1 |
17.2%Valinor | --market | -9.7pp |
P
17.8
F
17.2
V
17.2
|
0.6pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 245 avg 3 books |
Data context
778 sample flagsStatus1565roster/transaction rows
Lineups54confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows
Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.