Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-05-21 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-05-21
0 activated plays
Gap rows 156
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-05-23 Older: 2026-05-19

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-06-19 2026-06-18 2026-06-17 2026-06-16 2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-12

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Lean

TOR vs NYY | Carlos Rodón

Value Score 26.9
Odds / Gap +475 / +3.78%
1+ HR 21.2%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 0.997x

Value Rank #2

George Springer

Lean

TOR vs NYY | Carlos Rodón

Value Score 26.6
Odds / Gap +450 / +3.14%
1+ HR 21.3%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 0.997x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Nick Kurtz headshot

Nick Kurtz
ATH vs LAA | José Soriano | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.60%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 17.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+6.60%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+5.26%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-9.82%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ezequiel Tovar headshot

Ezequiel Tovar
COL vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +6.36%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +645 / U -960
+6.36%
12.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +640 / U -905
+6.27%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+6.27%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.0
Brenton Doyle headshot

Brenton Doyle
COL vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.50%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+5.50%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -980
+5.50%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+5.42%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jordan Beck headshot

Jordan Beck
COL vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +5.08%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +870 / U -1375
+5.08%
10.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +860 / U -1455
+4.97%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +860 / U --
+4.97%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.5
Willi Castro headshot

Willi Castro
COL vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.79%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +875 / U -1380
+4.79%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +865 / U --
+4.69%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +860 / U -1460
+4.63%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.7
Ozzie Albies headshot

Ozzie Albies
ATL vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.72%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -850
+4.72%
13.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +615 / U -905
+4.72%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+4.63%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jakob Marsee headshot

Jakob Marsee
MIA vs ATL | Spencer Strider | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.51%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +855 / U -1340
+4.51%
10.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +845 / U -1415
+4.40%
10.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +845 / U --
+4.40%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headshot

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR vs NYY | Carlos Rodón | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.78%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
+3.78%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+3.63%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -610
+3.47%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Bo Bichette headshot

Bo Bichette
NYM vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.77%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+3.77%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1125
+3.69%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+3.69%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mike Yastrzemski headshot

Mike Yastrzemski
ATL vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.50%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+3.50%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -845
+3.41%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+3.41%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nolan Schanuel headshot

Nolan Schanuel
LAA vs ATH | Luis Severino | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +3.33%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1035 / U -1785
+3.33%
8.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1015 / U --
+3.17%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +1005 / U -1885
+3.09%
8.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.4
Ryan O'Hearn headshot

Ryan O'Hearn
PIT vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.21%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -895
+3.21%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+3.21%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+3.11%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Spencer Horwitz headshot

Spencer Horwitz
PIT vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.20%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +755 / U -1115
+3.20%
11.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +750 / U -1185
+3.14%
11.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +745 / U --
+3.07%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
George Springer headshot

George Springer
TOR vs NYY | Carlos Rodón | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.14%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
+3.14%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+2.97%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -565
+2.80%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Bryan Reynolds headshot

Bryan Reynolds
PIT vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.03%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+3.03%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -850
+2.94%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+2.94%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Agustín Ramírez headshot

Agustín Ramírez
MIA vs ATL | Spencer Strider | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.83%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -845
+2.83%
14.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +580 / U -795
+2.72%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +580 / U --
+2.72%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Juan Soto headshot

Juan Soto
NYM vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.68%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 18.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +310 / U -375
+2.68%
23.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +320 / U -405
+1.43%
22.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +315 / U --
-5.73%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yoán Moncada headshot

Yoán Moncada
LAA vs ATH | Luis Severino | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.67%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -975
+2.67%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +650 / U -920
+2.59%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+2.59%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daniel Schneemann headshot

Daniel Schneemann
CLE vs DET | Casey Mize | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.63%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +810 / U -1230
+2.63%
10.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +800 / U -1305
+2.51%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +800 / U --
+2.51%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Marcus Semien headshot

Marcus Semien
NYM vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.54%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +630 / U -930
+2.54%
13.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +625 / U -875
+2.45%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+2.45%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cj Abrams headshot

Cj Abrams
WSH vs NYM | David Peterson | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.11%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -915
+2.11%
13.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+2.01%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +620 / U --
+2.01%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Shea Langeliers headshot

Shea Langeliers
ATH vs LAA | José Soriano | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.76%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -470
+1.76%
20.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +390 / U -505
+0.75%
19.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-5.05%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Keibert Ruiz headshot

Keibert Ruiz
WSH vs NYM | David Peterson | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.55%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +900 / U -1440
+1.55%
9.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +890 / U --
+1.45%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +885 / U -1525
+1.40%
9.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.9
Bo Naylor headshot

Bo Naylor
CLE vs DET | Casey Mize | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.27%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+1.27%
13.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +620 / U -915
+1.27%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +620 / U --
+1.27%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Drake Baldwin headshot

Drake Baldwin
ATL vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.00%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -740
+1.00%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+0.87%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -695
+0.74%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Zach Neto headshot

Zach Neto
LAA vs ATH | Luis Severino | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.96%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +490 / U -670
+0.96%
16.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+0.82%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -630
+0.67%
16.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Lawrence Butler headshot

Lawrence Butler
ATH vs LAA | José Soriano | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.88%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -775
+0.88%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -725
+0.76%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+0.76%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brent Rooker headshot

Brent Rooker
ATH vs LAA | José Soriano | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.87%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +360 / U -450
+0.87%
21.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -480
-0.07%
20.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +365 / U --
-4.20%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcell Ozuna headshot

Marcell Ozuna
PIT vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.86%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
+0.86%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-0.03%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-4.21%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Daylen Lile headshot

Daylen Lile
WSH vs NYM | David Peterson | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.75%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1255
+0.75%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1330
+0.63%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+0.63%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Austin Riley headshot

Austin Riley
ATL vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.73%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
+0.73%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+0.59%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+0.59%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Steven Kwan headshot

Steven Kwan
CLE vs DET | Casey Mize | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.63%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1720
+0.63%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+0.47%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1815
+0.42%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 104.3
Tyler Soderstrom headshot

Tyler Soderstrom
ATH vs LAA | José Soriano | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.56%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -845
+0.56%
14.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +580 / U -795
+0.45%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +580 / U --
+0.45%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Lowe headshot

Brandon Lowe
PIT vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.43%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -485
+0.43%
19.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +395 / U -520
-0.53%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-3.75%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jacob Wilson headshot

Jacob Wilson
ATH vs LAA | José Soriano | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +0.37%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1005 / U -1700
+0.37%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +985 / U --
+0.20%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +980 / U -1795
+0.16%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 107.7
Jo Adell headshot

Jo Adell
LAA vs ATH | Luis Severino | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.16%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +405 / U -515
+0.16%
19.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +415 / U -550
-0.72%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
-3.51%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Xavier Edwards headshot

Xavier Edwards
MIA vs ATL | Spencer Strider | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.15%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 4.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.15%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.65%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-3.35%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.1
Jorge Soler headshot

Jorge Soler
LAA vs ATH | Luis Severino | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.17%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
-0.17%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
-0.32%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
-0.47%
16.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jorge Polanco headshot

Jorge Polanco
NYM vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.23%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -675
-0.23%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
-0.51%
16.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
-0.51%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jahmai Jones headshot

Jahmai Jones
DET vs CLE | Joey Cantillo | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.30%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -885
-0.30%
13.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +600 / U -830
-0.41%
13.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +600 / U --
-0.41%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Logan O'Hoppe headshot

Logan O'Hoppe
LAA vs ATH | Luis Severino | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.30%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
-0.30%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -695
-0.43%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
-0.43%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Francisco Lindor headshot

Francisco Lindor
NYM vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.65%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -555
-0.65%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
-0.84%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -520
-1.03%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
James Wood headshot

James Wood
WSH vs NYM | David Peterson | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.80%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -695
-0.80%
15.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +500 / U --
-0.94%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +495 / U -655
-1.08%
16.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ronald Acuña Jr. headshot

Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.90%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -560
-0.90%
18.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -525
-1.27%
18.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
-1.27%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Torkelson headshot

Spencer Torkelson
DET vs CLE | Joey Cantillo | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.93%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-0.93%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-1.24%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-1.24%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Matt Olson headshot

Matt Olson
ATL vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.95%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-0.95%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-1.41%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +355 / U -445
-1.65%
21.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Ramírez headshot

José Ramírez
CLE vs DET | Casey Mize | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.05%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -485
-1.05%
19.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +395 / U -520
-2.01%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-2.27%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Kyle Manzardo headshot

Kyle Manzardo
CLE vs DET | Casey Mize | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -610
-1.14%
17.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +475 / U -650
-1.89%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
-2.32%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Hunter Goodman headshot

Hunter Goodman
COL vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.33%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -560
-1.33%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
-1.52%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -525
-1.71%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mike Trout headshot

Mike Trout
LAA vs ATH | Luis Severino | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.38%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-1.38%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -570
-1.80%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-1.98%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Riley Greene headshot

Riley Greene
DET vs CLE | Joey Cantillo | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.54%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -620
-1.54%
16.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +485 / U -660
-1.66%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
-1.96%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jake Mangum headshot

Jake Mangum
PIT vs STL | Dustin May | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.71%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 6.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.71%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.79%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-1.79%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 109.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 396
Latest Date 2026-06-19
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-06-19
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 294 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 45 / 85
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
William Contreras | 30.8
 --
Signals --
2026-06-18
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 195 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 43 / 45
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Trea Turner | 52.3
 --
Signals --
2026-06-17
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 225 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 79 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bo Bichette | 55.2
 --
Signals --
2026-06-16
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 336 matched
0 unmatched
 2 / 71 / 92
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Brandon Nimmo | 38.7
 --
Signals --
2026-06-15
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 168 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 29 / 36
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 39.6
 --
Signals --
2026-06-14
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 390 matched
0 unmatched
 53 / 83 / 83
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 55.4
 --
Signals --
2026-06-13
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 291 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 53 / 87
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 51.9
 --
Signals --
2026-06-12
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 249 matched
0 unmatched
 24 / 76 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 48.3
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356
Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821
Over Hit Rate 15.9%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%