{ "date": "2026-05-21", "generated_at": "2026-05-21T09:46:08.213087", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "projection_date": "2026-05-21", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 156, "matched_count": 156, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "parallel_hr_confidence_layer": { "status": "available", "raw_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw", "primary_internal_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic", "secondary_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic", "parallel_rf_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "parallel_catboost_field": "hr_prob_catboost_safe", "parallel_hybrid_field": "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted", "parallel_logistic_field": "hr_prob_logistic_classifier", "parallel_rf_logistic_anchor_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "parallel_refined_field": "hr_prob_refined", "bucket_field": "hr_confidence_bucket", "zone_field": "hr_confidence_zone_tag", "note": "RF-safe remains the ranking engine. CatBoost-safe, hybrid gap-adjusted, logistic classifier, RF-safe logistic-anchor, and refined probabilities are carried as parallel internal confidence fields only and do not replace the existing edge logic." }, "palantir_anchor_layer": { "status": "available", "anchor_model": "elastic_net", "projection_field": "projected_home_runs_palantir", "probability_field": "hr_prob_palantir", "confidence_label_field": "palantir_confidence_label", "signal_label_field": "palantir_signal_label", "support_layers": [ "projected_home_runs_elastic_net", "projected_home_runs_blended_safe", "projected_home_runs_baseline" ], "note": "Palantir is a stable projection-first internal anchor. These fields are additive and do not alter Fangorn ranking or HR edge ordering." }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 156, "matched_rows": 156, "unmatched_rows": 0, "over_recommendation_count": 52, "under_recommendation_count": 3, "strong_count": 0, "play_count": 18, "lean_count": 37, "no_play_count": 101, "average_edge_over": 0.0036, "average_edge_under": -0.0414, "value_play_count": 2 }, "edge_count": 156, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "hitter_id": 701762, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-05-21T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 265, "under_odds": -320, "expected_home_runs": 0.1889, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1721, "model_over_probability": 0.1721, "model_under_probability": 0.8279, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.274, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7619, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2645, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7355, "edge_over": -0.1019, "edge_under": 0.066, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.066, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.946, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.53, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.97, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.971, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 31.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.61, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.22, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 15.11, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 30.38, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.16, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1114, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0941, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1072, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0034, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0844, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1469, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1501, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260519T003420Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0377, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1048, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1126, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1114, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1104, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1692, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1799, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1668, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2706, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1896, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.1271, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1614, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1626, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1636, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.027, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.081, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.4768, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0343, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 2, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 18.16, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 18.16, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1048, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1048, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8952, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.1692, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1889, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1889, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1114, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1114, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8886000000000001, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.1626, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1469, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1469, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8531, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.1271, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0421, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "hitter_id": 678662, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-21T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 645, "under_odds": -960, "expected_home_runs": 0.2204, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1978, "model_over_probability": 0.1978, "model_under_probability": 0.8022, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1342, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9057, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1291, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8709, "edge_over": 0.0636, "edge_under": -0.1035, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0636, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9689, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.33, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.071, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.67, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.86, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 4.08, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.09, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.08, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1389, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1352, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1537, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1568, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260519T003420Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0481, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0804, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1367, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1255, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0538, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0047, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.001, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1338, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0339, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0195, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0025, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0006, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0087, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0999, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3506, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0477, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 3, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 6.08, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 6.08, "palantir_prob_over": 0.0804, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0804, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9196, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0538, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2204, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2204, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1336, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8664000000000001, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0006, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1537, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1537, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8463, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0195, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0733, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "hitter_id": 678662, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-05-21T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 640, "under_odds": -905, "expected_home_runs": 0.2204, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1978, "model_over_probability": 0.1978, "model_under_probability": 0.8022, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1351, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9005, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1305, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8695, "edge_over": 0.0627, "edge_under": -0.0983, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0627, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9689, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.33, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.071, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.67, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.86, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 4.08, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.09, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.08, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1389, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1352, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1537, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1568, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260519T003420Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0481, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0804, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1367, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1255, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0547, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0038, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0001, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1347, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0348, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0186, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0016, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0015, 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"ATH", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-21T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 280, "under_odds": -345, "expected_home_runs": 0.1889, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1721, "model_over_probability": 0.1721, "model_under_probability": 0.8279, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2632, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7753, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2534, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7466, "edge_over": -0.0911, "edge_under": 0.0526, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0526, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, 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0.1072, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0029, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0843, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1469, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1501, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260519T003420Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0374, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1048, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1126, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1114, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1104, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1584, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1691, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.156, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2603, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1789, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.1163, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1506, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1518, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1528, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, 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"fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1889, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1889, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1114, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1114, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8886000000000001, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.1518, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1469, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1469, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8531, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 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0.0996, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9004, "edge_over": 0.0508, "edge_under": -0.0861, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0508, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8657, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.071, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.89, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.01, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.29, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 4.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0908, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1395, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0996, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0682, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1044, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1086, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260519T003420Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0418, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0713, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0939, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0908, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0998, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0318, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0364, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0035, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1027, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0349, 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"valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.13, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.13, "valinor_prob_under": 0.87, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0051, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03599999999999999, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "hitter_id": 656811, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-21T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 640, "under_odds": -955, "expected_home_runs": 0.183, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1672, "model_over_probability": 0.1672, "model_under_probability": 0.8328, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1351, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9052, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1299, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8701, "edge_over": 0.0321, "edge_under": -0.0724, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0321, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8982, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.16, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.064, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.875, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.95, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 15.56, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.76, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.95, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.6, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1729, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1611, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1181, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.13, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1335, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260519T003420Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0584, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1213, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1768, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1545, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0138, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0378, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.026, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1347, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.017, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0051, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0417, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0222, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0194, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0392, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1177, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0733, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.058, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": 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"v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 10.6, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 10.6, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1213, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1213, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8787, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0138, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.183, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.183, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1573, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8427, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, 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"opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-05-21T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 755, "under_odds": -1115, "expected_home_runs": 0.1613, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.149, "model_over_probability": 0.149, "model_under_probability": 0.851, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.117, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9177, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1131, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8869, "edge_over": 0.032, "edge_under": -0.0667, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.032, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, 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"valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0015, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.042499999999999996, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Schanuel", "hitter_id": 694384, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Luis Severino", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-05-21T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1015, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1294, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1214, "model_over_probability": 0.1214, "model_under_probability": 0.8786, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0897, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0317, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0317, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9065, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.74, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.052, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.971, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.72, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.4, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 1.48, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.98, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.18, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1259, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1178, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0858, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1184, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1222, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260519T003420Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0426, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0403, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1182, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1137, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0494, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0362, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0281, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0893, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0039, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0287, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0285, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0246, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.024, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0285, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0855, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.21, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0422, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 42, "edge_direction_rank": 32, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": 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"Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1184, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1184, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8815999999999999, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0287, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0781, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "George Springer", "hitter_id": 543807, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Carlos Rod\u00f3n", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-21T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": -605, "expected_home_runs": 0.2398, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2132, "model_over_probability": 0.2132, "model_under_probability": 0.7868, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8582, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1748, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8252, "edge_over": 0.0314, "edge_under": -0.0714, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0314, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9701, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.63, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.153, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.997, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.13, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 22.87, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 15.29, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.97, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.23, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2043, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1852, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1687, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1718, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260519T003420Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0682, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1581, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2063, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1792, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0237, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0225, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0034, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.181, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0473, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0131, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0245, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0027, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0026, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1338, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0508, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0675, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 43, "edge_direction_rank": 33, "value_score": 26.6, "value_rank": 3, "value_box_rank": 2, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 17.23, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 17.23, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1581, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1581, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8419, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0237, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2398, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2398, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0027, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1687, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1687, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8313, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0131, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM 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"edge_under": -0.0712, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0314, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8409, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.064, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.875, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.62, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.15, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.93, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.85, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.51, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.151, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1448, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1185, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1223, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260519T003420Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0517, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0997, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1574, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1398, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0179, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0334, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0272, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1173, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0109, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0009, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0398, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0246, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0222, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0355, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1064, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.082, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0514, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without 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"valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1185, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1185, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8815, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0009, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.042499999999999996, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan O'Hearn", "hitter_id": 656811, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-05-21T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 635, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.183, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1672, "model_over_probability": 0.1672, "model_under_probability": 0.8328, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1361, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0311, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0311, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8982, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.16, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.064, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.875, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.95, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 15.56, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.76, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.95, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.6, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1729, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1611, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1181, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.13, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1335, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260519T003420Z", 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"fangorn_prob_under": 0.8427, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0212, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.13, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.13, "valinor_prob_under": 0.87, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0061, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03599999999999999, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Schanuel", "hitter_id": 694384, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Luis Severino", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-21T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1005, "under_odds": -1885, "expected_home_runs": 0.1294, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1214, "model_over_probability": 0.1214, "model_under_probability": 0.8786, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0905, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9496, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.087, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.913, "edge_over": 0.0309, "edge_under": -0.071, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0309, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9065, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.74, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.052, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.971, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.72, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.4, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 1.48, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.98, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.18, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1259, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1178, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0858, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1184, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1222, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260519T003420Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0426, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0403, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1182, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1137, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0502, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0354, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0273, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0901, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0047, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0279, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0277, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0238, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0232, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative 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"Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 46, "edge_direction_rank": 36, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 3.18, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 3.18, "palantir_prob_over": 0.0403, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0403, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9597, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0502, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1294, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1294, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1143, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1143, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8857, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0238, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1184, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1184, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8815999999999999, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0279, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0781, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Horwitz", "hitter_id": 687462, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-05-21T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 745, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1613, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.149, "model_over_probability": 0.149, 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"pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.875, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.62, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.15, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.93, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.85, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.51, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.151, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1448, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1185, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1223, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260519T003420Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0518, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0997, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1574, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1398, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0186, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0327, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0265, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.118, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0116, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0002, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0391, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0239, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0215, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0355, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1064, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.082, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0514, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", 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"fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0239, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1185, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1185, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8815, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0002, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.042499999999999996, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "hitter_id": 668804, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-21T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 615, "under_odds": -900, "expected_home_runs": 0.1866, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1702, "model_over_probability": 0.1702, "model_under_probability": 0.8298, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1399, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1345, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8655, "edge_over": 0.0303, "edge_under": -0.0702, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0303, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9896, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.31, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.064, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.875, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.09, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.97, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.21, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.72, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.71, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1544, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1401, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1018, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1471, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1503, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260519T003420Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0515, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1035, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1394, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1273, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0364, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0145, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0002, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1394, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0381, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0072, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0005, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0044, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0126, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0338, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1013, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.294, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.051, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 48, "edge_direction_rank": 38, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 11.71, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 11.71, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1035, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1035, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8965, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0364, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1866, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1866, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1355, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1355, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8645, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0044, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1471, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1471, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8529, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0072, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.043600000000000014, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "George Springer", "hitter_id": 543807, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Carlos Rod\u00f3n", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-05-21T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 445, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2398, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2132, "model_over_probability": 0.2132, "model_under_probability": 0.7868, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1835, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0297, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0297, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9701, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.63, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.153, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.997, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.13, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 22.87, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 15.29, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.97, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.23, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2043, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1852, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1687, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1718, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260519T003420Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0682, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1581, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2063, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1792, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0254, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0208, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0017, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1827, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.049, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0148, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0228, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0044, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0043, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1338, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0508, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0675, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 49, "edge_direction_rank": 39, "value_score": 26.5, "value_rank": 4, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 17.23, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 17.23, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1581, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1581, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8419, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0254, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2398, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2398, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0044, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1687, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1687, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8313, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0148, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.02100000000000002, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Bryan Reynolds", "hitter_id": 668804, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-05-21T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", 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"palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0976, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.203, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.203, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0648, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1914, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1914, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8086, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0525, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.04509999999999997, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "hitter_id": 660162, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Luis Severino", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-21T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 655, "under_odds": -975, "expected_home_runs": 0.1734, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1592, "model_over_probability": 0.1592, "model_under_probability": 0.8408, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1325, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.907, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1275, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8725, "edge_over": 0.0267, "edge_under": -0.0662, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0267, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.052, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.971, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.78, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.68, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 2.52, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.99, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1701, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1715, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1278, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1313, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260519T003420Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0601, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.074, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1875, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1631, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0585, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0376, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.039, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.132, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0033, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0047, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.055, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0396, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0306, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1287, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1978, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0597, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard 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"fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0396, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1278, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1278, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8722, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0047, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0981, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "hitter_id": 682177, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Casey Mize", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-05-21T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 810, "under_odds": -1230, "expected_home_runs": 0.1464, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1362, "model_over_probability": 0.1362, "model_under_probability": 0.8638, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1099, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9248, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1062, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8938, "edge_over": 0.0263, "edge_under": -0.061, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0263, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.087, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 5.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 7.67, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 4.82, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.89, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0471, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1062, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0577, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0354, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1327, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1361, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260519T003420Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0285, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0792, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0771, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0911, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0307, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0037, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0522, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1096, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0745, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0228, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0328, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0628, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0188, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0117, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0351, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.452, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0282, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 68, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 58, "edge_direction_rank": 47, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 5.63, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 5.63, "palantir_prob_over": 0.0792, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0792, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9208, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0307, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1464, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1464, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0471, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0471, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.9529, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0628, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1327, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1327, 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"team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "David Peterson", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-05-21T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 900, "under_odds": -1440, "expected_home_runs": 0.1227, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1155, "model_over_probability": 0.1155, "model_under_probability": 0.8845, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9351, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0966, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9034, "edge_over": 0.0155, "edge_under": -0.0506, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0155, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8671, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.87, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.028, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.905, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.31, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 7.4, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 2.32, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.6, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.58, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, 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"valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.139, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.139, "valinor_prob_under": 0.861, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0651, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03860000000000001, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "hitter_id": 695734, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "David Peterson", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-05-21T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 820, "under_odds": -1255, "expected_home_runs": 0.1235, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1162, "model_over_probability": 0.1162, "model_under_probability": 0.8838, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1087, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9262, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.105, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.895, "edge_over": 0.0075, "edge_under": -0.0424, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0075, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8193, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.86, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; 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"hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0915, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0795, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0665, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0631, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1084, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0733, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0509, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0308, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0616, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0172, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0117, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0351, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.651, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0154, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", 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"fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0616, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1596, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1596, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8404, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0509, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.1304, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "hitter_id": 686948, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-05-21T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": -695, "expected_home_runs": 0.1848, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1687, "model_over_probability": 0.1687, "model_under_probability": 0.8313, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8742, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1558, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8442, "edge_over": 0.0074, "edge_under": -0.0429, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0074, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.94, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.044, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.995, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.74, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.91, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.57, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.26, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.71, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1331, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1627, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1482, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1514, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260519T003420Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0529, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1041, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1834, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1598, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0572, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0282, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0014, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1606, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.032, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0131, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0221, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0108, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0015, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", 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"fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1698, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1698, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8302, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0017, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0746, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "hitter_id": 687263, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Luis Severino", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-05-21T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 480, "under_odds": -630, "expected_home_runs": 0.1974, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1791, "model_over_probability": 0.1791, "model_under_probability": 0.8209, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1724, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.863, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1665, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8335, "edge_over": 0.0067, "edge_under": -0.0421, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0067, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8941, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.33, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.052, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.971, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.98, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 22.95, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 13.58, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 21.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.2, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2027, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1848, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1518, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1549, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260519T003420Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0678, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1393, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2029, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1761, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0331, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0303, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0124, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1718, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0379, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0206, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0305, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0067, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0037, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1339, 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trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 123, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 15.2, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 15.2, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1393, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1393, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8607, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0331, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1974, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1974, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0067, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1518, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1518, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8482000000000001, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0206, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0398, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "hitter_id": 695734, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "pitcher_name": "David Peterson", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-21T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 810, "under_odds": -1330, "expected_home_runs": 0.1235, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1162, "model_over_probability": 0.1162, "model_under_probability": 0.8838, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1099, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9301, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1057, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8943, "edge_over": 0.0063, "edge_under": -0.0463, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0063, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8193, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.86, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.028, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.905, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.57, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 3.49, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 2.4, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0471, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0422, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0456, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0354, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1596, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1627, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260519T003420Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0157, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0292, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0779, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0915, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0807, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0677, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0643, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1096, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0745, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0497, 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"hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1491, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1523, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260519T003420Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0573, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1489, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1637, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1444, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0573, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0302, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0559, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.205, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0993, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0571, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0425, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.064, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0618, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0353, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1058, 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not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 139, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 21.24, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 21.24, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1489, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1489, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8511, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0573, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1822, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1822, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1422, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.064, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1491, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1491, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8509, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0571, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.006900000000000017, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "hitter_id": 680757, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Casey Mize", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-21T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 985, "under_odds": -1815, "expected_home_runs": 0.1014, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0964, "model_over_probability": 0.0964, "model_under_probability": 0.9036, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0922, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9478, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0887, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9113, "edge_over": 0.0042, "edge_under": -0.0442, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0042, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.087, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 104.3, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.27, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.22, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 2.9, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 4.46, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1034, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0899, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0993, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0776, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1254, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1289, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260519T003420Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0337, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0402, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0987, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1034, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1024, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.052, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0023, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0071, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0919, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0146, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0332, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0065, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0112, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0102, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0258, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0773, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0955, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0334, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 142, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 4.46, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 4.46, "palantir_prob_over": 0.0402, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0402, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9598, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.052, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1014, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1014, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1034, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1034, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8966, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0112, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1254, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1254, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8746, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0332, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.08520000000000001, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Wilson", "hitter_id": 805779, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-05-21T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1005, "under_odds": -1700, "expected_home_runs": 0.0989, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0942, "model_over_probability": 0.0942, "model_under_probability": 0.9058, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0905, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9444, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0874, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9126, "edge_over": 0.0037, "edge_under": -0.0386, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0037, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8522, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.69, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.97, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.971, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 4.16, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.94, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0501, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.009, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0936, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.0981, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260519T003420Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0102, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0194, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0418, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0749, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0711, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0404, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0815, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0902, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0904, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0031, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0487, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0905, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0156, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0002, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.8213, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0099, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 145, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 1.59, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 1.59, "palantir_prob_over": 0.0194, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0194, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9806, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0711, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.0989, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.0989, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0, "fangorn_prob_under": 1.0, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0905, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Full Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0936, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0936, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9064, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0031, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0936, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Wilson", "hitter_id": 805779, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-05-21T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 985, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0989, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0942, "model_over_probability": 0.0942, "model_under_probability": 0.9058, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0922, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.002, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.002, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8522, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.69, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.97, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.971, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 4.16, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.94, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0501, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.009, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0936, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.0981, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260519T003420Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0102, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0194, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0418, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0749, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0728, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0421, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0832, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0919, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0921, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0014, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0504, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0922, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0173, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0002, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.8213, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0099, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller 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405, "under_odds": -515, "expected_home_runs": 0.1755, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.161, "model_over_probability": 0.161, "model_under_probability": 0.839, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.198, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8374, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1912, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8088, "edge_over": -0.037, "edge_under": 0.0016, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0016, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8117, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.75, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.052, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.971, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.33, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.81, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 21.21, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.65, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 21.5, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1861, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1763, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.001, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1713, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1744, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260519T003420Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0637, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1576, 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"recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Wilson", "hitter_id": 805779, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-21T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 980, "under_odds": -1795, "expected_home_runs": 0.0989, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0942, "model_over_probability": 0.0942, "model_under_probability": 0.9058, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0926, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9472, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0891, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9109, "edge_over": 0.0016, "edge_under": -0.0414, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0016, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8522, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.69, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.97, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.971, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 4.16, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.94, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0501, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.009, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0936, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.0981, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260519T003420Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0102, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0194, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0418, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0749, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0732, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0425, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0836, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0923, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0925, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.001, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0508, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0926, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0177, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0002, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.8213, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0099, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 152, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 1.59, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 1.59, "palantir_prob_over": 0.0194, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0194, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9806, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0732, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.0989, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.0989, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0, "fangorn_prob_under": 1.0, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0926, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Full Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0936, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0936, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9064, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.001, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0936, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "hitter_id": 542303, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-21T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 380, "under_odds": -495, "expected_home_runs": 0.1844, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1684, "model_over_probability": 0.1684, "model_under_probability": 0.8316, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2083, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8319, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2002, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7998, "edge_over": -0.0399, "edge_under": -0.0003, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0003, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9289, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.37, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", 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"implied_under_probability_raw": 0.955, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0773, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9227, "edge_over": -0.0335, "edge_under": -0.0015, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0015, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8853, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.29, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.119, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.995, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 3.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.14, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 4.04, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 5.63, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.13, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0908, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0621, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0839, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0682, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1201, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1238, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260519T003420Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0263, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0177, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0928, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0908, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0992, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0623, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0179, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0039, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0796, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0118, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0401, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0128, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0108, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0192, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0226, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0678, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 1.0467, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0259, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", 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"fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1201, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1201, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8799, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0401, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.10239999999999999, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "hitter_id": 624585, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Luis Severino", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-21T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 485, "under_odds": -660, "expected_home_runs": 0.1854, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1692, "model_over_probability": 0.1692, "model_under_probability": 0.8308, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1709, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8684, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1644, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8356, "edge_over": -0.0017, "edge_under": -0.0376, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0017, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8671, "availability_status": 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"hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.167, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.167, "valinor_prob_under": 0.833, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0011, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.039599999999999996, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "hitter_id": 681351, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Luis Severino", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-21T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 530, "under_odds": -745, "expected_home_runs": 0.1692, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1557, "model_over_probability": 0.1557, "model_under_probability": 0.8443, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8817, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1525, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8475, "edge_over": -0.003, "edge_under": -0.0374, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.003, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8101, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.67, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.052, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.971, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 15.21, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.59, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.06, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1332, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1395, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1068, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1604, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1635, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260519T003420Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0484, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.104, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1652, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1456, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0547, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0255, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0192, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1581, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0519, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0017, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0065, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0165, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0131, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1062, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2222, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": 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0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0165, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1604, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1604, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8396, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0017, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.05639999999999999, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "hitter_id": 663330, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-21T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 605, "under_odds": -885, "expected_home_runs": 0.1494, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1388, "model_over_probability": 0.1388, "model_under_probability": 0.8612, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1418, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8985, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1363, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8637, "edge_over": -0.003, "edge_under": -0.0373, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.003, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did 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4.12, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.925, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.905, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 21.08, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 13.95, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.71, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.9, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1822, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1751, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.167, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1701, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260519T003420Z", 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"pitcher_name": "Luis Severino", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-05-21T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 425, "under_odds": -570, "expected_home_runs": 0.1894, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1725, "model_over_probability": 0.1725, "model_under_probability": 0.8275, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1905, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8507, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.183, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.817, "edge_over": -0.018, "edge_under": -0.0232, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.018, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": 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0.8843, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.02, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.983, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.19, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.28, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.7, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.24, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.156, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1553, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1164, 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"pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.971, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.33, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.81, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 21.21, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.65, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 21.5, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1861, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1763, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.001, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1713, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1744, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260519T003420Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0637, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1576, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.183, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1594, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0385, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.01, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0198, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1951, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0668, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0248, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0131, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.024, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0367, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0428, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1283, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2077, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0627, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as 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"timestamp": "2026-05-21T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 390, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1822, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1666, "model_over_probability": 0.1666, "model_under_probability": 0.8334, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2041, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0375, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0375, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.928, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.18, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.064, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.875, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.55, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.5, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 20.2, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 21.24, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.176, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1503, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 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