Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Sale
Probable starter
|
ATL vs PHI | 6.54 | 28.0% | 27.1% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Carlos Rodón
Probable starter
|
NYY vs NYM | 5.92 | 25.2% | 22.6% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 0 |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable starter
|
TEX vs AZ | 5.87 | 28.3% | 29.9% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 5 |
Blake Snell
Probable starter
|
LAD vs MIA | 5.75 | 27.3% | 32.6% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 0 |
Nolan McLean
Probable starter
|
NYM vs NYY | 5.54 | 28.7% | 32.5% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 4 |
Taj Bradley
Probable starter
|
MIN vs CLE | 5.40 | 24.2% | 26.5% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 3 |
Shota Imanaga
Probable starter
|
CHC vs PIT | 5.35 | 26.4% | 26.1% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
George Kirby
Probable starter
|
SEA vs ATH | 5.28 | 23.0% | 25.2% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Robbie Ray
Probable starter
|
SD vs SF | 5.21 | 25.9% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 4 |
Framber Valdez
Probable starter
|
DET vs COL | 4.98 | 18.3% | 18.0% | 22.4% | 17.9 | 10 | 4 |
Aaron Nola
Probable starter
|
PHI vs ATL | 4.94 | 23.4% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Sonny Gray
Probable starter
|
BOS vs KC | 4.93 | 20.9% | 17.3% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Yusei Kikuchi
Probable starter
|
LAA vs WSH | 4.77 | 22.7% | 23.2% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 4 |
Seth Lugo
Probable starter
|
KC vs BOS | 4.76 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable starter
|
ATH vs SEA | 4.70 | 22.6% | 22.1% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
Ryan Gusto
Probable starter
|
MIA vs LAD | 4.62 | 22.6% | 19.4% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 1 |
Parker Messick
Probable starter
|
CLE vs MIN | 4.39 | 23.1% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Merrill Kelly
Probable starter
|
AZ vs TEX | 4.37 | 19.6% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 10 | 2 |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable starter
|
TB vs HOU | 4.29 | 24.1% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 3 |
Mason Adams
Probable starter
|
COL vs DET | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Miguel Ullola
Probable starter
|
HOU vs TB | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Wilber Dotel
Probable starter
|
PIT vs CHC | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Dustin May
Probable starter
|
MIL vs CIN | 4.22 | 20.4% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 3 |
Anthony Kay
Probable starter
|
CWS vs STL | 4.10 | 22.1% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable starter
|
STL vs CWS | 3.85 | 16.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Anthony Molina
Probable starter
|
SF vs SD | 3.74 | 20.3% | 15.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 0 |
Max Scherzer
Probable starter
|
TOR vs BAL | 3.68 | 21.7% | 20.7% | 22.4% | 13.9 | 10 | 3 |
Andrew Abbott
Probable starter
|
CIN vs MIL | 3.65 | 17.5% | 15.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Cade Cavalli
Probable starter
|
WSH vs LAA | 3.44 | 18.9% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 4 |
Chris Bassitt
Probable starter
|
BAL vs TOR | 3.41 | 16.6% | 12.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 4 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.