Mithrandir Metrics
Player St. Louis Cardinals Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / St. Louis Cardinals

Matthew Liberatore

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 4", 215 lb · Age 26

Cards
19
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club St. Louis Cardinals Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024344.40606086.0761.27
20258124.2129290151.21221.31
2026565.001919093.2881.48
5 Seasons21304.71139720427.23601.40
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
32
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
33
Arsenal7 metrics
53
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason4.29
ERA current pace5.00
ERA rolling p504.75
Observed weight64%
ERA
3.61 4.15 4.75 5.34 5.88
FIP
3.96 4.22 4.50 4.79 5.04
K%
19.1% 20.1% 21.3% 22.5% 23.6%
BB%
6.7% 7.4% 8.1% 8.8% 9.5%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.46
24
ERA5.00
25
BB%8.6%
51 -26 vs proj
K%21.6%
44 +19 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.350
15 -17 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.2%
28
Fastball velo94.4
50
Hard-hit allowed42.9%
25
Whiff%21.2%
36
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-16
Curveball Stuff+102
57
Fastball Stuff+101
42
Mithrandir Stuff+102
51
Slider Stuff+103
56
Changeup Stuff+105
73
Cutter Stuff+96
10
Sinker Stuff+106
80
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Liberatore, Matthew · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.350 2026-07-05: 0.3592026-07-06: 0.3592026-07-07: 0.3572026-07-08: 0.3572026-07-09: 0.3572026-07-10: 0.3572026-07-11: 0.3572026-07-12: 0.3572026-07-13: 0.3502026-07-14: 0.3502026-07-15: 0.3502026-07-16: 0.350 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Liberatore, Matthew · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Liberatore, Matthew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 31.9%Slider: 22.9%Curveball: 16.8%Changeup: 15.0%Sinker: 8.8%Cutter: 4.1% FF32% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 32%SL 23%CU 17%CH 15%SI 9%FC 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Liberatore, Matthew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 32% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 94.5 mphFF94 mphSlider: 23% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 86.5 mphSL87 mphCurveball: 17% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 61″ drop, 79.5 mphCU80 mphChangeup: 15% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 88.7 mphCH89 mphSinker: 9% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 94.4 mphSI94 mphCutter: 4% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 90.7 mphFC91 mphSplit-Finger: 1% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 87.0 mphFS87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 31.6% 394 101 qualified
SL 23.7% 295 103 qualified
CB 16.4% 205 102 qualified
CH 14.7% 183 105 limited sample
SI 9.1% 113 106 limited sample
FC 4.6% 57 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age26
Height6' 4"
Weight215 lb
Debut2022-05-21
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.49
K% Δ+0.029

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.7σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.368
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.350

Liberatore’s wOBA-against sits at 0.368, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.350 — a gap of 0.018, 0.7 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 96 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching192026-07-11Four-Seam Fastball played up through CU/CH tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202618.7% K | 4.51 ERAProjection
2026-04-13 vs CLE4 ER / 2 K5.0 IP
2026-04-07 @ WSH4 ER / 6 K5.0 IP
2026-04-01 vs NYM1 ER / 2 K6.0 IP
2026-03-26 vs TB1 ER / 2 K5.0 IP