Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hunter Brown
Probable starter
|
HOU vs ATL | 6.46 | 29.8% | 28.9% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 2 |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable starter
|
MIL vs BAL | 6.06 | 31.6% | 33.4% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 5 |
Gavin Williams
Probable starter
|
CLE vs ATH | 5.93 | 27.5% | 32.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable starter
|
PHI vs NYM | 5.85 | 27.9% | 31.8% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Jacob deGrom
Probable starter
|
TEX vs TOR | 5.60 | 28.2% | 31.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Corbin Burnes
Probable starter
|
AZ vs NYY | 5.31 | 23.0% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 0 |
Will Warren
Probable starter
|
NYY vs AZ | 4.75 | 25.0% | 25.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable starter
|
MIA vs SD | 4.73 | 19.3% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 18.6 | 10 | 4 |
Quinn Mathews
Probable starter
|
STL vs WSH | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Michael Wacha
Probable starter
|
KC vs PIT | 4.62 | 21.1% | 22.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Dean Kremer
Probable starter
|
MIN vs LAA | 4.43 | 23.9% | 22.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 1 |
Davis Martin
Probable starter
|
CWS vs DET | 4.38 | 20.7% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
David Peterson
Probable starter
|
CHC vs CIN | 4.36 | 22.4% | 19.8% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 3 |
Kade Anderson
Probable starter
|
SEA vs COL | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Matt Wilkinson
Probable starter
|
SF vs LAD | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Spencer Miles
Probable starter
|
TOR vs TEX | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Jonah Tong
Probable starter
|
NYM vs PHI | 4.17 | 23.2% | 24.4% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 0 |
Rhett Lowder
Probable starter
|
CIN vs CHC | 4.14 | 18.6% | 16.7% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
Patrick Sandoval
Probable starter
|
BOS vs TB | 4.06 | 21.9% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Troy Melton
Probable starter
|
DET vs CWS | 3.95 | 22.0% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 1 |
Ryan Johnson
Probable starter
|
LAA vs MIN | 3.94 | 20.1% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Lake Bachar
Probable starter
|
PIT vs KC | 3.93 | 22.1% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 0 |
Jake Irvin
Probable starter
|
WSH vs STL | 3.92 | 20.3% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 4 |
Jack Perkins
Probable starter
|
ATH vs CLE | 3.87 | 21.7% | 21.6% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Brandon Young
Probable starter
|
BAL vs MIL | 3.69 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Walker Buehler
Probable starter
|
SD vs MIA | 3.49 | 18.8% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 2 |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable starter
|
COL vs SEA | 3.42 | 17.5% | 17.8% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 3 |
Griffin Jax
Probable starter
|
TB vs BOS | 3.34 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 13.5 | 10 | 0 |
Martín Pérez
Probable starter
|
ATL vs HOU | 3.12 | 16.6% | 13.5% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 3 |
Jack Dreyer
Probable starter
|
LAD vs SF | 2.67 | 21.0% | 19.6% | 22.4% | 12.1 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.