Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zack Wheeler
Probable starter
|
PHI vs TB | 6.79 | 29.8% | 33.1% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 10 | 0 |
Logan Gilbert
Probable starter
|
SEA vs LAA | 6.52 | 28.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable starter
|
MIL vs STL | 6.44 | 31.6% | 33.4% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 5 |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable starter
|
TEX vs MIN | 5.87 | 28.3% | 29.9% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 5 |
Shota Imanaga
Probable starter
|
CHC vs BOS | 4.97 | 26.4% | 26.1% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Dean Kremer
Probable starter
|
MIN vs TEX | 4.81 | 23.9% | 22.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 1 |
Yusei Kikuchi
Probable starter
|
LAA vs SEA | 4.77 | 22.7% | 23.2% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 4 |
Sean Manaea
Probable starter
|
NYM vs WSH | 4.73 | 25.4% | 26.5% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 1 |
Elmer Rodríguez
Probable starter
|
NYY vs BAL | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Shane Baz
Probable starter
|
BAL vs NYY | 4.67 | 23.0% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 3 |
Anthony Kay
Probable starter
|
CWS vs COL | 4.48 | 22.1% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
Jared Jones
Probable starter
|
PIT vs DET | 4.45 | 23.8% | 27.8% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Dj Herz
Probable starter
|
WSH vs NYM | 4.43 | 21.9% | 23.0% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Parker Messick
Probable starter
|
CLE vs KC | 4.39 | 23.1% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
River Ryan
Probable starter
|
DET vs PIT | 4.38 | 21.9% | 22.1% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Jr. Ritchie
Probable starter
|
ATL vs MIA | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Michael Soroka
Probable starter
|
AZ vs SD | 4.29 | 23.8% | 25.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
Seth Johnson
Probable starter
|
ATH vs HOU | 4.07 | 21.9% | 16.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Peter Lambert
Probable starter
|
HOU vs ATH | 4.01 | 23.8% | 23.2% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Daniel Lynch IV
Probable starter
|
KC vs CLE | 3.88 | 22.4% | 21.8% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 0 |
Kyle Freeland
Probable starter
|
COL vs CWS | 3.69 | 18.7% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Max Scherzer
Probable starter
|
TOR vs CIN | 3.68 | 21.7% | 20.7% | 22.4% | 13.9 | 10 | 3 |
Janson Junk
Probable starter
|
MIA vs ATL | 3.58 | 16.6% | 16.0% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 5 |
Randy Vásquez
Probable starter
|
SD vs AZ | 3.49 | 17.2% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 4 |
Nick Martinez
Probable starter
|
TB vs PHI | 3.48 | 17.4% | 15.8% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Brandon Williamson
Probable starter
|
CIN vs TOR | 3.32 | 18.2% | 15.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Carson Seymour
Probable starter
|
SF vs LAD | 3.25 | 19.5% | 16.1% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 0 |
Andre Pallante
Probable starter
|
STL vs MIL | 2.90 | 14.8% | 13.9% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.