Mithrandir Metrics
Player New York Mets Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / New York Mets

Nolan McLean

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 214 lb · Age 24

Cards
14
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club New York Mets Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2025512.0688048.0571.04
2026663.5219190107.11251.12
2 Seasons1173.0727270155.11821.09
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
68
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
66
Arsenal7 metrics
73
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.48
ERA current pace3.52
ERA rolling p503.51
Observed weight65%
ERA
2.29 2.87 3.51 4.15 4.73
FIP
2.32 2.82 3.37 3.91 4.41
K%
25.4% 26.7% 28.1% 29.5% 30.7%
BB%
7.0% 7.7% 8.5% 9.3% 10.0%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.14
76
ERA3.52
62
BB%8.7%
49
K%27.8%
83
xwOBA allowed0.291
71 +20 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.7%
66 +32 vs proj
Fastball velo95.4
66
Hard-hit allowed34.9%
76
Whiff%22.1%
43 -17 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+105
73
Mithrandir Stuff+107
87
Sinker Stuff+107
87
Slider Stuff+102
49
Changeup Stuff+105
70
Curveball Stuff+103
72
Cutter Stuff+105
75
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed McLean, Nolan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.291 2026-07-05: 0.2902026-07-06: 0.2902026-07-07: 0.2882026-07-08: 0.2882026-07-09: 0.2882026-07-10: 0.2882026-07-11: 0.2882026-07-12: 0.2912026-07-13: 0.2912026-07-14: 0.2912026-07-15: 0.2912026-07-16: 0.291 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 34%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile McLean, Nolan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McLean, Nolan · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 33.7%4-Seam Fastball: 19.8%Sweeper: 16.4%Curveball: 13.0%Cutter: 10.1%Changeup: 6.5% SI34% · 95 mphprimary pitch SI 34%FF 20%ST 16%CU 13%FC 10%CH 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal McLean, Nolan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ Sinker: 34% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 95.0 mphSI95 mph4-Seam Fastball: 20% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 96.1 mphFF96 mphSweeper: 16% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 84.8 mphST85 mphCurveball: 13% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 81.9 mphCU82 mphCutter: 10% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 91.9 mphFC92 mphChangeup: 7% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 38″ drop, 88.1 mphCH88 mphSlider: 0% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 87.7 mphSL88 mphSlow Curve: 0% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 64″ drop, 74.8 mphCS75 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 35.2% 458 107 qualified
FB 18.2% 237 105 qualified
SL 16.9% 220 102 qualified
CB 12.5% 162 103 limited sample
FC 10.0% 130 105 limited sample
CH 7.2% 93 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age24
Height6' 2"
Weight214 lb
Debut2025-08-16
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.23
K% Δ+0.026

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.3σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.300
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.291

McLean’s wOBA-against sits at 0.300, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.291 — a gap of 0.008, 0.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 105 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching142026-07-10Four-Seam Fastball played up through SI/CU tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202625.2% K | 3.29 ERAProjection
2026-04-14 @ LAD1 ER / 8 K7.0 IP
2026-04-09 vs AZ2 ER / 8 K6.1 IP
2026-04-03 @ SF1 ER / 4 K5.1 IP
2026-03-29 vs PIT2 ER / 8 K5.0 IP