Mithrandir Metrics
Player Chicago Cubs Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Chicago Cubs

Shota Imanaga

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 5' 10", 175 lb · Age 33

Cards
31
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Chicago Cubs Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20241532.9129290173.11741.02
2025983.7325250144.21170.99
202611103.7431310173.11711.10
3 Seasons35213.4485850491.14621.04
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
75
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
60
Arsenal5 metrics
54
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.84
ERA current pace3.80
ERA rolling p503.81
Observed weight76%
ERA
2.79 3.27 3.81 4.35 4.83
FIP
3.86 4.10 4.35 4.61 4.85
K%
21.9% 22.8% 23.8% 24.8% 25.7%
BB%
4.3% 4.7% 5.2% 5.7% 6.2%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.11
85
ERA3.80
59
BB%5.4%
93
K%24.7%
69 +27 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.301
66 +20 vs proj
Barrel allowed9.8%
16
Fastball velo91.4
10
Hard-hit allowed37.5%
57
Whiff%28.7%
89 +39 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+105
71
Mithrandir Stuff+104
69
Slider Stuff+103
57
Curveball Stuff+103
56
Sinker Stuff+96
15
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Imanaga, Shota · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.301 2026-09-12: 0.3032026-09-13: 0.3032026-09-14: 0.3032026-09-18: 0.3012026-09-19: 0.3012026-09-20: 0.3012026-09-21: 0.3012026-09-22: 0.3012026-09-23: 0.3012026-09-24: 0.3012026-09-25: 0.3012026-09-26: 0.301 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 40%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Imanaga, Shota · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 29%29%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 46%46%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Imanaga, Shota · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 40.1%Split-Finger: 34.5%Sweeper: 14.5%Sinker: 6.1%Curveball: 2.9%Slider: 1.9% FF40% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 40%FS 34%ST 15%SI 6%CU 3%SL 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Imanaga, Shota · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 40% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 91.6 mphFF92 mphSplit-Finger: 34% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 82.8 mphFS83 mphSweeper: 15% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 81.1 mphST81 mphSinker: 6% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 90.2 mphSI90 mphCurveball: 3% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 63″ drop, 74.5 mphCU74 mphSlider: 2% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 86.3 mphSL86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 63.8% 804 105 qualified
SL 24.5% 309 103 qualified
SI 7.8% 98 96 limited sample
CB 4.0% 50 103 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age33
Height5' 10"
Weight175 lb
Debut2024-04-01
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.07
K% Δ+0.038

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.1σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.327
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.301

Imanaga’s wOBA-against sits at 0.327, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.301 — a gap of 0.026, 1.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 181 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching312026-09-22Splitter played up through FS/FF tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202620.9% K | 3.87 ERAProjection
2026-04-15 @ PHI1 ER / 11 K6.0 IP
2026-04-05 @ CLE1 ER / 4 K5.0 IP
2026-03-29 vs WSH4 ER / 7 K5.0 IP