Mithrandir Metrics
Player Chicago Cubs Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Chicago Cubs

Shota Imanaga

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 5' 10", 175 lb · Age 32

Cards
20
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Chicago Cubs Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20241532.9129290173.11741.02
2025983.7325250144.21170.99
2026584.1719190108.01051.12
3 Seasons29193.5173730426.03961.04
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
67
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
57
Arsenal5 metrics
49
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.84
ERA current pace4.17
ERA rolling p504.06
Observed weight67%
ERA
3.10 3.55 4.06 4.57 5.02
FIP
4.01 4.23 4.47 4.72 4.94
K%
21.1% 22.2% 23.4% 24.6% 25.7%
BB%
4.6% 5.2% 5.8% 6.4% 7.0%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.13
76
ERA4.17
45
BB%6.3%
84
K%24.6%
65 +27 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.301
64 +16 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.5%
16 -18 vs proj
Fastball velo91.6
12
Hard-hit allowed37.8%
57
Whiff%29.7%
91 +44 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+106
78
Mithrandir Stuff+104
65
Curveball Stuff+102
48
Sinker Stuff+95
13
Slider Stuff+101
41
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Imanaga, Shota · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.301 2026-07-05: 0.2982026-07-06: 0.2982026-07-07: 0.2982026-07-08: 0.2982026-07-09: 0.2982026-07-10: 0.2982026-07-11: 0.2982026-07-12: 0.3012026-07-13: 0.3012026-07-14: 0.3012026-07-15: 0.3012026-07-16: 0.301 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Imanaga, Shota · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 30%30%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Imanaga, Shota · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 41.0%Split-Finger: 33.5%Sweeper: 14.4%Sinker: 6.7%Curveball: 2.9%Slider: 1.5% FF41% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 41%FS 34%ST 14%SI 7%CU 3%SL 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Imanaga, Shota · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 41% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 91.8 mphFF92 mphSplit-Finger: 34% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 83.2 mphFS83 mphSweeper: 14% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 81.6 mphST82 mphSinker: 7% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 90.3 mphSI90 mphCurveball: 3% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 63″ drop, 74.5 mphCU75 mphSlider: 1% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 86.4 mphSL86 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 65.8% 488 106 qualified
SL 21.6% 160 101 limited sample
SI 8.8% 65 95 limited sample
CB 3.9% 29 102 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age32
Height5' 10"
Weight175 lb
Debut2024-04-01
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.31
K% Δ+0.037

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.6σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.345
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.301

Imanaga’s wOBA-against sits at 0.345, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.301 — a gap of 0.044, 1.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 116 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching202026-07-10Splitter played up through FS/FF tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202620.9% K | 3.87 ERAProjection
2026-04-15 @ PHI1 ER / 11 K6.0 IP
2026-04-05 @ CLE1 ER / 4 K5.0 IP
2026-03-29 vs WSH4 ER / 7 K5.0 IP