Mithrandir Metrics
Player Atlanta Braves Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Atlanta Braves

Chris Sale

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 6", 180 lb · Age 37

Cards
16
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Atlanta Braves Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20241832.3829290177.22251.01
2025752.5821200125.21651.07
2026962.201717098.01171.11
16 Seasons154942.97410329122182.026961.05
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
84
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
81
Arsenal5 metrics
81
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.36
ERA current pace2.20
ERA rolling p502.60
Observed weight65%
ERA
1.68 2.12 2.60 3.09 3.53
FIP
2.47 2.67 2.89 3.11 3.30
K%
25.4% 26.7% 28.1% 29.5% 30.8%
BB%
4.7% 5.2% 5.9% 6.5% 7.1%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.07
84
ERA2.20
94
BB%5.8%
89
K%27.6%
82
xwOBA allowed0.289
73
Barrel allowed6.2%
73 +26 vs proj
Fastball velo95.7
71
Hard-hit allowed33.7%
84
Whiff%27.1%
79
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+106
80
Mithrandir Stuff+106
84
Slider Stuff+103
55
Changeup Stuff+108
89
Sinker Stuff+109
96
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Sale, Chris · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.289 2026-07-06: 0.2892026-07-07: 0.2892026-07-08: 0.2892026-07-09: 0.2892026-07-10: 0.2892026-07-11: 0.2892026-07-12: 0.2892026-07-13: 0.2892026-07-14: 0.2892026-07-15: 0.2892026-07-16: 0.2892026-07-17: 0.289 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 40%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Sale, Chris · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 27%27%Called strike: 17%17%First pitch strike: 55%55%Hard hit allowed: 34%34% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sale, Chris · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 40.3%Slider: 39.1%Changeup: 12.1%Sinker: 8.6% FF40% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 40%SL 39%CH 12%SI 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Sale, Chris · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 40% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 95.8 mphFF96 mphSlider: 39% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 79.3 mphSL79 mphChangeup: 12% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 88.1 mphCH88 mphSinker: 9% usage, 16″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 95.3 mphSI95 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 40.7% 469 103 qualified
FB 39.8% 458 106 qualified
CH 11.8% 136 108 limited sample
SI 7.6% 88 109 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age37
Height6' 6"
Weight180 lb
Debut2010-08-06
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-1.05
K% Δ+0.002

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.9σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.312
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.289

Sale’s wOBA-against sits at 0.312, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.289 — a gap of 0.024, 0.9 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 109 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching162026-07-10Command and chase profile drove the outing
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202627.4% K | 3.25 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 @ MIA1 ER / 8 K7.0 IP
2026-04-12 vs CLE1 ER / 6 K6.0 IP
2026-04-06 @ LAA6 ER / 7 K4.0 IP
2026-04-01 vs ATH1 ER / 3 K6.0 IP
2026-03-27 vs KC0 ER / 6 K6.0 IP