Mithrandir Metrics
Player Cincinnati Reds Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Cincinnati Reds

Andrew Abbott

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 0", 192 lb · Age 27

Cards
21
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Cincinnati Reds Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
202410103.7225250138.01141.30
20251072.8729290166.11491.15
2026554.1120200105.0841.42
4 Seasons33283.5695950518.24671.28
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
29
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
32
Arsenal6 metrics
55
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason3.85
ERA current pace4.11
ERA rolling p504.02
Observed weight67%
ERA
3.11 3.54 4.02 4.50 4.94
FIP
4.16 4.49 4.86 5.23 5.56
K%
17.4% 18.4% 19.4% 20.5% 21.5%
BB%
7.9% 8.5% 9.2% 9.9% 10.6%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.50
18
ERA4.11
47
BB%10.5%
30 -43 vs proj
K%18.5%
23
xwOBA allowed0.336
29 -16 vs proj
Barrel allowed8.0%
44
Fastball velo92.6
23
Hard-hit allowed41.2%
35
Whiff%21.4%
37
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-17
Changeup Stuff+95
14
Fastball Stuff+103
52
Mithrandir Stuff+102
47
Slider Stuff+108
88
Curveball Stuff+102
59
Cutter Stuff+104
72
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Abbott, Andrew · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.336 2026-07-06: 0.3392026-07-07: 0.3392026-07-08: 0.3392026-07-09: 0.3372026-07-10: 0.3372026-07-11: 0.3372026-07-12: 0.3372026-07-13: 0.3372026-07-14: 0.3362026-07-15: 0.3362026-07-16: 0.3352026-07-17: 0.336 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 47%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Abbott, Andrew · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 21%21%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 41%41% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Abbott, Andrew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 46.7%Sweeper: 20.4%Changeup: 17.9%Curveball: 13.2%Cutter: 1.8% FF47% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 47%ST 20%CH 18%CU 13%FC 2% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Abbott, Andrew · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 47% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 92.6 mphFF93 mphSweeper: 20% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 42″ drop, 82.2 mphST82 mphChangeup: 18% usage, 14″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 85.9 mphCH86 mphCurveball: 13% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 79.7 mphCU80 mphCutter: 2% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 88.9 mphFC89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 46.5% 634 103 qualified
SL 20.8% 283 108 qualified
CH 18.4% 251 95 qualified
CB 13.4% 182 102 limited sample
FC 0.9% 12 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age27
Height6' 0"
Weight192 lb
Debut2023-06-05
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.09
K% Δ-0.022

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.6σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.378
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.336

Abbott’s wOBA-against sits at 0.378, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.336 — a gap of 0.043, 1.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 110 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching212026-07-12Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/ST tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202620.8% K | 4.07 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 @ PHI1 ER / 3 K5.1 IP
2026-04-12 vs LAA7 ER / 1 K3.0 IP
2026-04-07 @ MIA2 ER / 2 K5.1 IP
2026-04-01 vs PIT4 ER / 5 K5.2 IP
2026-03-26 vs BOS0 ER / 4 K6.0 IP