Mithrandir Metrics
Player San Francisco Giants Refreshed Jun 12 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / San Francisco Giants

Robbie Ray

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 2", 220 lb · Age 34

Cards
16
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club San Francisco Giants Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024324.7077030.2431.14
20251183.6532320182.11861.21
2026464.421414073.1661.39
13 Seasons92873.9627927501514.118001.29
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-12
36
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
39
Arsenal6 metrics
20
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-12
ERA preseason3.88
ERA current pace4.45
ERA rolling p504.22
Observed weight59%
ERA
2.87 3.51 4.22 4.93 5.56
FIP
3.55 4.07 4.65 5.23 5.76
K%
20.2% 21.5% 22.9% 24.4% 25.7%
BB%
7.9% 8.7% 9.7% 10.6% 11.4%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-12
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.31
49
ERA4.45
35
BB%10.8%
26 -23 vs proj
K%22.7%
51
xwOBA allowed0.352
17 -32 vs proj
Barrel allowed10.8%
15 -19 vs proj
Fastball velo93.3
32
Hard-hit allowed35.9%
70
Whiff%23.4%
53
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-06-12
Changeup Stuff+102
47
Fastball Stuff+99
28
Mithrandir Stuff+96
16
Slider Stuff+93
7
Curveball Stuff+99
11
Sinker Stuff+93
9
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Ray, Robbie · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.352 2026-06-01: 0.3542026-06-02: 0.3542026-06-03: 0.3542026-06-04: 0.3542026-06-05: 0.3542026-06-06: 0.3502026-06-07: 0.3502026-06-08: 0.3502026-06-09: 0.3502026-06-10: 0.3502026-06-11: 0.3502026-06-12: 0.352 2026-06-01 2026-06-12 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 44%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Ray, Robbie · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 35%35%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 13%13%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ray, Robbie · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 44.3%Slider: 27.8%Changeup: 15.7%Knuckle Curve: 7.9%Sinker: 4.3% FF44% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 44%SL 28%CH 16%KC 8%SI 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Ray, Robbie · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 44% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 93.4 mphFF93 mphSlider: 28% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 85.7 mphSL86 mphChangeup: 16% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 85.9 mphCH86 mphKnuckle Curve: 8% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 79.3 mphKC79 mphSinker: 4% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 20″ drop, 93.0 mphSI93 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 43.2% 534 99 qualified
SL 28.3% 350 93 qualified
CH 16.8% 208 102 qualified
CB 7.9% 98 99 limited sample
SI 3.7% 46 93 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age34
Height6' 2"
Weight220 lb
Debut2014-05-06
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.33
K% Δ-0.012

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.4σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.364
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.352

Ray’s wOBA-against sits at 0.364, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.352 — a gap of 0.013, 0.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 82 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching162026-05-244-Seam Fastball played up through CH/KC tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202623.9% K | 4.12 ERAProjection
2026-04-14 @ CIN2 ER / 6 K5.0 IP
2026-04-07 vs PHI0 ER / 7 K6.2 IP
2026-04-02 vs NYM2 ER / 7 K5.1 IP
2026-03-27 vs NYY2 ER / 4 K5.1 IP