Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Blake Snell
Probable starter
|
LAD vs SF | 5.75 | 27.3% | 32.6% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 0 |
Nathan Eovaldi
Probable starter
|
TEX vs MIN | 5.39 | 25.6% | 27.6% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 10 | 4 |
Connelly Early
Probable starter
|
WSH vs NYM | 5.24 | 25.0% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Michael Wacha
Probable starter
|
KC vs CLE | 5.00 | 21.1% | 22.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Trey Yesavage
Probable starter
|
TOR vs CIN | 4.91 | 25.5% | 27.4% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Jack Ralston
Probable starter
|
MIA vs ATL | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Kade Anderson
Probable starter
|
SEA vs LAA | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Matt Wilkinson
Probable starter
|
SF vs LAD | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Tanner Bibee
Probable starter
|
CLE vs KC | 4.60 | 21.6% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 6 |
Davis Martin
Probable starter
|
CWS vs COL | 4.38 | 20.7% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
Bailey Ober
Probable starter
|
MIN vs TEX | 4.36 | 19.5% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Kirby Yates
Probable starter
|
PIT vs DET | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Quinn Mathews
Probable starter
|
STL vs MIL | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Jack Perkins
Probable starter
|
ATH vs HOU | 4.25 | 21.7% | 21.6% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Dustin May
Probable starter
|
MIL vs STL | 4.22 | 20.4% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 3 |
Justin Verlander
Probable starter
|
DET vs PIT | 4.18 | 18.5% | 16.3% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 1 |
Hayden Wesneski
Probable starter
|
HOU vs ATH | 4.14 | 23.1% | 22.7% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 1 |
Jonah Tong
Probable starter
|
NYM vs WSH | 3.79 | 23.2% | 24.4% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 0 |
Rhett Lowder
Probable starter
|
CIN vs TOR | 3.75 | 18.6% | 16.7% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
Ryan Johnson
Probable starter
|
LAA vs SEA | 3.56 | 20.1% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Walker Buehler
Probable starter
|
SD vs AZ | 3.49 | 18.8% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 2 |
Griffin Jax
Probable starter
|
TB vs PHI | 2.95 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 13.5 | 10 | 0 |
Jose Quintana
Probable starter
|
COL vs CWS | 2.67 | 14.0% | 11.6% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 3 |
Brent Suter
Probable starter
|
ATL vs MIA | 2.47 | 20.4% | 16.4% | 22.4% | 13.8 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.