Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Sale
Probable starter
|
ATL vs TEX | 6.52 | 28.0% | 27.1% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Gavin Williams
Probable starter
|
CLE vs PIT | 5.90 | 27.5% | 32.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Seth Lugo
Probable starter
|
KC vs SD | 5.11 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Reid Detmers
Probable starter
|
LAA vs DET | 4.96 | 22.1% | 25.8% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Logan Henderson
Probable starter
|
MIL vs MIA | 4.84 | 26.9% | 29.3% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 1 |
Gerrit Cole
Probable starter
|
NYY vs LAD | 4.83 | 21.9% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Michael King
Probable starter
|
SD vs KC | 4.70 | 23.2% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable starter
|
MIA vs MIL | 4.70 | 19.3% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 18.6 | 10 | 4 |
Gabriel Hughes
Probable starter
|
COL vs CIN | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Gage Jump
Probable starter
|
ATH vs WSH | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Jake Bennett
Probable starter
|
BOS vs TB | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Spencer Miles
Probable starter
|
TOR vs CWS | 4.66 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Bryce Miller
Probable starter
|
SEA vs SF | 4.43 | 20.9% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Dean Kremer
Probable starter
|
BAL vs HOU | 4.43 | 23.9% | 22.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 1 |
Peter Lambert
Probable starter
|
HOU vs BAL | 4.39 | 23.8% | 23.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Merrill Kelly
Probable starter
|
AZ vs STL | 4.36 | 19.6% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 10 | 2 |
Colin Rea
Probable starter
|
CHC vs MIN | 4.28 | 18.5% | 23.6% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 2 |
Landen Roupp
Probable starter
|
SF vs SEA | 4.26 | 24.1% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 2 |
Jared Jones
Probable starter
|
PIT vs CLE | 4.23 | 21.9% | 24.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Anthony Kay
Probable starter
|
CWS vs TOR | 4.15 | 22.6% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 2 |
Troy Melton
Probable starter
|
DET vs LAA | 4.02 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Bailey Ober
Probable starter
|
MIN vs CHC | 3.97 | 19.5% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Brady Singer
Probable starter
|
CIN vs COL | 3.90 | 19.6% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 3 |
Roki Sasaki
Probable starter
|
LAD vs NYY | 3.42 | 20.5% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 3 |
Cade Cavalli
Probable starter
|
WSH vs ATH | 3.04 | 18.9% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 4 |
Griffin Jax
Probable starter
|
TB vs BOS | 2.95 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 13.5 | 10 | 0 |
Cal Quantrill
Probable starter
|
TEX vs ATL | 2.84 | 17.8% | 11.4% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.