Mithrandir Metrics
Player Cleveland Guardians Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Cleveland Guardians

Parker Messick

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 0", 225 lb · Age 25

Cards
29
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Cleveland Guardians Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2025312.7277039.2381.31
20261292.5732320185.11921.06
2 Seasons15102.6039390225.02301.10
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
86
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
75
Arsenal7 metrics
46
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-27
ERA preseason3.91
ERA current pace2.55
ERA rolling p502.87
Observed weight76%
ERA
1.76 2.29 2.87 3.45 3.98
FIP
2.58 2.99 3.44 3.89 4.29
K%
23.3% 24.2% 25.3% 26.3% 27.2%
BB%
5.0% 5.5% 6.1% 6.7% 7.2%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-27
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.07
88
ERA2.55
91
BB%6.3%
87
K%25.8%
76 +29 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.272
88 +36 vs proj
Barrel allowed5.7%
78 +30 vs proj
Fastball velo93.9
40
Hard-hit allowed35.4%
74
Whiff%22.9%
53
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-27
Changeup Stuff+100
36
Fastball Stuff+105
72
Mithrandir Stuff+102
51
Sinker Stuff+102
47
Curveball Stuff+104
75
Cutter Stuff+95
7
Slider Stuff+100
33
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Messick, Parker · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.272 2026-09-13: 0.2722026-09-14: 0.2722026-09-18: 0.2732026-09-19: 0.2732026-09-20: 0.2732026-09-21: 0.2732026-09-22: 0.2732026-09-23: 0.2722026-09-24: 0.2722026-09-25: 0.2722026-09-26: 0.2722026-09-27: 0.272 2026-09-13 2026-09-27 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Messick, Parker · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Messick, Parker · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 41.3%Changeup: 23.3%Sinker: 14.8%Curveball: 8.8%Slider: 6.8%Cutter: 5.1% FF41% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 41%CH 23%SI 15%CU 9%SL 7%FC 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Messick, Parker · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 41% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 94.3 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 23% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 85.8 mphCH86 mphSinker: 15% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 92.7 mphSI93 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 79.0 mphCU79 mphSlider: 7% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.8 mphSL87 mphCutter: 5% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 90.4 mphFC90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 39.6% 778 105 qualified
CH 23.4% 460 100 qualified
SI 14.3% 281 102 qualified
SL 8.7% 170 100 limited sample
CB 8.6% 169 104 limited sample
FC 5.3% 105 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age25
Height6' 0"
Weight225 lb
Debut2025-08-20
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-1.22
K% Δ+0.041

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.1σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.300
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.272

Messick’s wOBA-against sits at 0.300, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.272 — a gap of 0.027, 1.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 192 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching292026-09-22Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/CH tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

2026-04-11 @ ATL0 ER / 5 K6.2 IP
2026-04-05 vs CHC1 ER / 6 K5.0 IP
2026-03-30 @ LAD0 ER / 5 K6.0 IP