Mithrandir Metrics
Player Cleveland Guardians Refreshed Jul 19 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Cleveland Guardians

Parker Messick

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 0", 225 lb · Age 25

Cards
18
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Cleveland Guardians Position P Roster profile Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2025312.7277039.2381.31
2026852.7319190112.01101.07
2 Seasons1162.7326260151.21481.13
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
75
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
66
Arsenal7 metrics
43
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-19
ERA preseason3.91
ERA current pace2.73
ERA rolling p503.12
Observed weight67%
ERA
2.08 2.57 3.12 3.66 4.15
FIP
2.93 3.31 3.73 4.15 4.53
K%
21.6% 22.8% 24.1% 25.3% 26.5%
BB%
5.4% 6.1% 6.8% 7.6% 8.2%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-19
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.11
81
ERA2.73
82
BB%7.5%
67 -24 vs proj
K%24.4%
63 +17 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.281
82 +28 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.6%
67
Fastball velo93.3
29
Hard-hit allowed35.4%
73
Whiff%23.0%
50
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-19
Changeup Stuff+100
34
Fastball Stuff+104
63
Mithrandir Stuff+101
44
Curveball Stuff+103
68
Cutter Stuff+95
6
Sinker Stuff+103
53
Slider Stuff+100
34
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Messick, Parker · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.281 2026-07-08: 0.2802026-07-09: 0.2802026-07-10: 0.2802026-07-11: 0.2802026-07-12: 0.2812026-07-13: 0.2812026-07-14: 0.2812026-07-15: 0.2812026-07-16: 0.2812026-07-17: 0.2812026-07-18: 0.2812026-07-19: 0.281 2026-07-08 2026-07-19 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 34%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Messick, Parker · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 36%36%Zone: 47%47%Whiff: 23%23%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Messick, Parker · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 34.4%Changeup: 23.3%Sinker: 17.0%Curveball: 11.4%Cutter: 7.3%Slider: 6.6% FF34% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 34%CH 23%SI 17%CU 11%FC 7%SL 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Messick, Parker · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 34% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.8 mphFF94 mphChangeup: 23% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 36″ drop, 85.5 mphCH86 mphSinker: 17% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 92.4 mphSI92 mphCurveball: 11% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 50″ drop, 78.8 mphCU79 mphCutter: 7% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 90.4 mphFC90 mphSlider: 7% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 86.8 mphSL87 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 30.9% 362 104 qualified
CH 23.8% 279 100 qualified
SI 16.8% 197 103 limited sample
CB 11.5% 135 103 limited sample
SL 8.5% 100 100 limited sample
FC 8.5% 100 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age25
Height6' 0"
Weight225 lb
Debut2025-08-20
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-1.04
K% Δ+0.027

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.4σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.317
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.281

Messick’s wOBA-against sits at 0.317, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.281 — a gap of 0.036, 1.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 121 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching182026-07-10Four-Seam Fastball played up through CH/CU tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202621.7% K | 3.77 ERAProjection