Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zack Wheeler
Probable starter
|
PHI vs MIL | 6.79 | 29.8% | 33.1% | 22.4% | 17.8 | 10 | 0 |
Logan Gilbert
Probable starter
|
SEA vs HOU | 6.52 | 28.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 5 |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable starter
|
TEX vs NYM | 6.25 | 28.3% | 29.9% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 5 |
Carlos Rodón
Probable starter
|
NYY vs TB | 5.92 | 25.2% | 22.6% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 0 |
Max Fried
Probable starter
|
NYY vs TB | 5.53 | 21.3% | 20.9% | 22.4% | 18.8 | 10 | 4 |
Shota Imanaga
Probable starter
|
CHC vs MIA | 5.35 | 26.4% | 26.1% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Taj Bradley
Probable starter
|
MIN vs SF | 5.02 | 24.2% | 26.5% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 3 |
Jared Jones
Probable starter
|
PIT vs STL | 4.83 | 23.8% | 27.8% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Yusei Kikuchi
Probable starter
|
LAA vs ATH | 4.77 | 22.7% | 23.2% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 4 |
Sean Manaea
Probable starter
|
NYM vs TEX | 4.73 | 25.4% | 26.5% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 1 |
Michael King
Probable starter
|
SD vs LAD | 4.72 | 23.2% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Brock Stewart
Probable starter
|
LAD vs SD | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Jr. Ritchie
Probable starter
|
ATL vs CIN | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Drew Anderson
Probable starter
|
DET vs WSH | 4.61 | 24.1% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 1 |
Parker Messick
Probable starter
|
CLE vs BOS | 4.39 | 23.1% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Michael Soroka
Probable starter
|
AZ vs COL | 4.29 | 23.8% | 25.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
Riley Cornelio
Probable starter
|
WSH vs DET | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Anthony Kay
Probable starter
|
CWS vs KC | 4.10 | 22.1% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
Kyle Freeland
Probable starter
|
COL vs AZ | 4.07 | 18.7% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Payton Tolle
Probable starter
|
BOS vs CLE | 4.07 | 22.8% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable starter
|
TB vs NYY | 3.90 | 24.1% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 3 |
Daniel Lynch IV
Probable starter
|
KC vs CWS | 3.88 | 22.4% | 21.8% | 22.4% | 14.1 | 10 | 0 |
Dustin May
Probable starter
|
MIL vs PHI | 3.84 | 20.4% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 3 |
Chris Bassitt
Probable starter
|
BAL vs TOR | 3.80 | 16.6% | 12.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 4 |
Anthony Molina
Probable starter
|
SF vs MIN | 3.74 | 20.3% | 15.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 0 |
Brady Basso
Probable starter
|
ATH vs LAA | 3.74 | 20.9% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 10 | 0 |
Nick Martinez
Probable starter
|
TB vs NYY | 3.48 | 17.4% | 15.8% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Brandon Williamson
Probable starter
|
CIN vs ATL | 3.32 | 18.2% | 15.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Max Scherzer
Probable starter
|
TOR vs BAL | 3.30 | 21.7% | 20.7% | 22.4% | 13.9 | 10 | 3 |
Janson Junk
Probable starter
|
MIA vs CHC | 3.20 | 16.6% | 16.0% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 5 |
Cristian Javier
Probable starter
|
HOU vs SEA | 3.07 | 19.4% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 13.3 | 10 | 2 |
Andre Pallante
Probable starter
|
STL vs PIT | 2.90 | 14.8% | 13.9% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.