Mithrandir Metrics
Player Kansas City Royals Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Kansas City Royals

Seth Lugo

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 4", 225 lb · Age 36

Cards
19
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Kansas City Royals Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20241693.0033330206.21811.09
2025874.1526260145.11251.29
2026364.3920200110.2891.41
11 Seasons67533.58380143161103.210431.20
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
32
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
23
Arsenal7 metrics
67
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-18
ERA preseason4.04
ERA current pace4.56
ERA rolling p504.38
Observed weight66%
ERA
3.38 3.86 4.38 4.91 5.38
FIP
3.75 4.13 4.56 4.99 5.38
K%
16.9% 18.0% 19.3% 20.5% 21.6%
BB%
6.6% 7.2% 7.8% 8.5% 9.1%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-18
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.48
21
ERA4.56
35
BB%7.9%
63
K%19.1%
27
xwOBA allowed0.357
12
Barrel allowed10.1%
20 -19 vs proj
Fastball velo91.6
12
Hard-hit allowed44.7%
14
Whiff%16.5%
6
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-18
Curveball Stuff+105
87
Fastball Stuff+100
34
Mithrandir Stuff+105
74
Sinker Stuff+107
88
Slider Stuff+103
58
Changeup Stuff+107
84
Cutter Stuff+101
46
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lugo, Seth · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.357 2026-07-07: 0.3532026-07-08: 0.3532026-07-09: 0.3562026-07-10: 0.3562026-07-11: 0.3562026-07-12: 0.3562026-07-13: 0.3562026-07-14: 0.3572026-07-15: 0.3572026-07-16: 0.3572026-07-17: 0.3572026-07-18: 0.357 2026-07-07 2026-07-18 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 20%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lugo, Seth · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 53%53%Whiff: 17%17%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 45%45% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lugo, Seth · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 19.7%4-Seam Fastball: 16.9%Cutter: 16.5%Curveball: 14.8%Sweeper: 9.7%Slider: 8.8% SI20% · 91 mphprimary pitch SI 20%FF 17%FC 17%CU 15%ST 10%SL 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lugo, Seth · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ Sinker: 20% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 91.5 mphSI91 mph4-Seam Fastball: 17% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 91.7 mphFF92 mphCutter: 16% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 21″ drop, 89.8 mphFC90 mphCurveball: 15% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 61″ drop, 77.1 mphCU77 mphSweeper: 10% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 79.0 mphST79 mphSlider: 9% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 84.3 mphSL84 mphChangeup: 8% usage, 13″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 84.9 mphCH85 mphSlurve: 3% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 77.7 mphSV78 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 22.2% 268 103 qualified
SI 19.7% 238 107 qualified
FB 17.2% 208 100 qualified
CB 16.7% 201 105 qualified
FC 15.4% 186 101 limited sample
CH 8.7% 105 107 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age36
Height6' 4"
Weight225 lb
Debut2016-07-01
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.54
K% Δ+0.008

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.8σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.378
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.357

Lugo’s wOBA-against sits at 0.378, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.357 — a gap of 0.021, 0.8 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 106 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching192026-07-17Run prevention outpaced the underlying contact signals
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202618.3% K | 5.10 ERAProjection
2026-04-20 vs BAL0 ER / 7 K7.0 IP
2026-04-15 @ DET1 ER / 7 K6.2 IP
2026-04-09 vs CWS1 ER / 4 K6.1 IP
2026-04-04 vs MIL2 ER / 7 K5.0 IP
2026-03-29 @ ATL0 ER / 3 K6.1 IP