Mithrandir Metrics
Player Kansas City Royals Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Kansas City Royals

Seth Lugo

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 4", 225 lb · Age 36

Cards
30
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Kansas City Royals Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20241693.0033330206.21811.09
2025874.1526260145.11251.29
2026795.1732320172.11341.47
11 Seasons71563.74392155161165.110881.22
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
31
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
26
Arsenal7 metrics
66
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.04
ERA current pace5.06
ERA rolling p504.82
Observed weight76%
ERA
3.74 4.25 4.82 5.38 5.89
FIP
3.59 4.00 4.46 4.93 5.34
K%
16.5% 17.3% 18.3% 19.2% 20.1%
BB%
6.4% 6.9% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.51
21
ERA5.06
26
BB%7.4%
72
K%17.9%
20
xwOBA allowed0.343
18
Barrel allowed8.0%
41
Fastball velo91.5
11
Hard-hit allowed43.5%
17
Whiff%16.6%
7
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Curveball Stuff+105
88
Cutter Stuff+100
38
Fastball Stuff+101
39
Mithrandir Stuff+104
70
Sinker Stuff+108
89
Slider Stuff+103
57
Changeup Stuff+105
77
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Lugo, Seth · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.343 2026-09-12: 0.3432026-09-13: 0.3432026-09-14: 0.3432026-09-18: 0.3432026-09-19: 0.3432026-09-20: 0.3432026-09-21: 0.3432026-09-22: 0.3432026-09-23: 0.3432026-09-24: 0.3432026-09-25: 0.3432026-09-26: 0.343 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 20%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Lugo, Seth · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 52%52%Whiff: 17%17%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 44%44% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lugo, Seth · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 19.7%4-Seam Fastball: 16.6%Cutter: 15.9%Curveball: 14.9%Sweeper: 11.3%Slider: 9.2% SI20% · 91 mphprimary pitch SI 20%FF 17%FC 16%CU 15%ST 11%SL 9% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Lugo, Seth · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Sinker: 20% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 91.4 mphSI91 mph4-Seam Fastball: 17% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 17″ drop, 91.7 mphFF92 mphCutter: 16% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 89.8 mphFC90 mphCurveball: 15% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 60″ drop, 77.3 mphCU77 mphSweeper: 11% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 79.2 mphST79 mphSlider: 9% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 84.3 mphSL84 mphChangeup: 9% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 85.1 mphCH85 mphSlow Curve: 2% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 60″ drop, 69.2 mphCS69 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SL 22.2% 446 103 qualified
SI 19.1% 383 108 qualified
FB 17.5% 352 101 qualified
CB 16.4% 329 105 qualified
FC 15.7% 315 100 qualified
CH 9.1% 183 105 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age36
Height6' 4"
Weight225 lb
Debut2016-07-01
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.11
K% Δ-0.004

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.4σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.377
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.343

Lugo’s wOBA-against sits at 0.377, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.343 — a gap of 0.034, 1.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 172 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching302026-09-23Stuff and strike quality carried the outing
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202618.3% K | 4.95 ERAProjection
2026-04-20 vs BAL0 ER / 7 K7.0 IP
2026-04-15 @ DET1 ER / 7 K6.2 IP
2026-04-09 vs CWS1 ER / 4 K6.1 IP
2026-04-04 vs MIL2 ER / 7 K5.0 IP
2026-03-29 @ ATL0 ER / 3 K6.1 IP