Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tyler Glasnow
Probable starter
|
LAD vs SD | 6.27 | 29.3% | 27.5% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 2 |
Cam Schlittler
Probable starter
|
NYY vs TB | 6.00 | 29.4% | 29.4% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 7 |
Paul Skenes
Probable starter
|
PIT vs STL | 5.72 | 27.3% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Nick Pivetta
Probable starter
|
SD vs LAD | 5.34 | 29.6% | 30.5% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 4 |
Bryan Woo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs LAA | 5.12 | 21.0% | 25.6% | 22.4% | 18.2 | 10 | 3 |
Ian Seymour
Probable starter
|
TB vs NYY | 5.08 | 26.8% | 27.4% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 1 |
Matthew Boyd
Probable starter
|
CHC vs MIA | 4.99 | 25.2% | 25.9% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 3 |
Ranger Suarez
Probable starter
|
BOS vs CLE | 4.65 | 20.6% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Randy Dobnak
Probable starter
|
KC vs CWS | 4.56 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 1 |
Tyler Mahle
Probable starter
|
ATL vs CIN | 4.41 | 21.6% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Grayson Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
LAA vs SEA | 4.32 | 21.9% | 25.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Daniel Espino
Probable starter
|
CLE vs BOS | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
David Sandlin
Probable starter
|
CWS vs KC | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Andrew Painter
Probable starter
|
PHI vs MIL | 4.28 | 21.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 2 |
Kumar Rocker
Probable starter
|
TEX vs NYM | 4.23 | 20.6% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 10 | 2 |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
AZ vs COL | 4.09 | 17.9% | 17.0% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 4 |
Peter Lambert
Probable starter
|
HOU vs ATH | 4.01 | 23.8% | 23.2% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Tanner Gordon
Probable starter
|
COL vs AZ | 4.00 | 19.5% | 25.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 0 |
Brady Singer
Probable starter
|
CIN vs ATL | 3.95 | 19.0% | 17.8% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 4 |
Mason Barnett
Probable starter
|
ATH vs HOU | 3.82 | 20.0% | 18.3% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 0 |
Zac Thornton
Probable starter
|
NYM vs TEX | 3.72 | 21.1% | 20.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 1 |
Shane Drohan
Probable starter
|
MIL vs PHI | 3.48 | 21.0% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 1 |
Kyle Leahy
Probable starter
|
STL vs PIT | 3.20 | 18.7% | 16.6% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 4 |
Tyler Phillips
Probable starter
|
MIA vs CHC | 3.12 | 21.3% | 17.6% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.