Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Sale
Probable starter
|
ATL vs CIN | 6.54 | 28.0% | 27.1% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Kevin Gausman
Probable starter
|
CHC vs MIA | 5.94 | 28.3% | 31.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable starter
|
LAD vs SD | 5.89 | 25.0% | 24.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
George Kirby
Probable starter
|
SEA vs HOU | 5.66 | 23.0% | 25.2% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Nolan McLean
Probable starter
|
NYM vs TEX | 5.54 | 28.7% | 32.5% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 4 |
Aaron Nola
Probable starter
|
PHI vs MIL | 5.32 | 23.4% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Robbie Ray
Probable starter
|
SD vs LAD | 5.21 | 25.9% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 4 |
Seth Lugo
Probable starter
|
KC vs CWS | 5.14 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Framber Valdez
Probable starter
|
DET vs WSH | 4.98 | 18.3% | 18.0% | 22.4% | 17.9 | 10 | 4 |
Sonny Gray
Probable starter
|
BOS vs CLE | 4.93 | 20.9% | 17.3% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Gerrit Cole
Probable starter
|
NYY vs TB | 4.86 | 21.9% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable starter
|
ATH vs LAA | 4.70 | 22.6% | 22.1% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
Cesar Perdomo
Probable starter
|
SF vs MIN | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Mason Adams
Probable starter
|
COL vs AZ | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Trey Gibson
Probable starter
|
BAL vs TOR | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Cody Bradford
Probable starter
|
TEX vs NYM | 4.54 | 21.9% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Logan Henderson
Probable starter
|
MIL vs PHI | 4.47 | 26.9% | 29.3% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 1 |
Bryan Hudson
Probable starter
|
CWS vs KC | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Cj Van Eyk
Probable starter
|
TOR vs BAL | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Ethan Pecko
Probable starter
|
HOU vs SEA | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Richard Lovelady
Probable starter
|
WSH vs DET | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Walbert Ureña
Probable starter
|
LAA vs ATH | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Ryan Gusto
Probable starter
|
MIA vs CHC | 4.24 | 22.6% | 19.4% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 1 |
Connor Prielipp
Probable starter
|
MIN vs SF | 4.16 | 22.1% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Merrill Kelly
Probable starter
|
AZ vs COL | 3.99 | 19.6% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 10 | 2 |
Lake Bachar
Probable starter
|
PIT vs STL | 3.93 | 22.1% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 0 |
Chris Bassitt
Probable starter
|
BAL vs TOR | 3.80 | 16.6% | 12.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 4 |
Foster Griffin
Probable starter
|
CLE vs BOS | 3.79 | 20.9% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Andrew Abbott
Probable starter
|
CIN vs ATL | 3.65 | 17.5% | 15.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 5 |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable starter
|
STL vs PIT | 3.47 | 16.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Mason Englert
Probable starter
|
TB vs NYY | 3.36 | 20.4% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 1 |
Max Scherzer
Probable starter
|
TOR vs BAL | 3.30 | 21.7% | 20.7% | 22.4% | 13.9 | 10 | 3 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.