Mithrandir Metrics
Player Miami Marlins Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Miami Marlins

Ryan Gusto

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 4", 232 lb · Age 27

Cards
15
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Miami Marlins Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2025775.6727170101.2971.48
2026154.092318088.0741.44
2 Seasons8124.9350350189.21711.46
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
40
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
34
Arsenal7 metrics
79
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.69
ERA current pace4.14
ERA rolling p504.35
Observed weight62%
ERA
3.02 3.65 4.35 5.05 5.68
FIP
3.41 3.76 4.14 4.52 4.86
K%
17.5% 18.7% 20.1% 21.5% 22.7%
BB%
5.9% 6.6% 7.4% 8.1% 8.8%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.47
26
ERA4.14
48
BB%7.1%
76 +16 vs proj
K%18.8%
28 -16 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.341
22
Barrel allowed8.8%
29
Fastball velo94.2
47
Hard-hit allowed43.2%
18
Whiff%17.9%
12 -29 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+108
87
Mithrandir Stuff+106
86
Changeup Stuff+103
57
Curveball Stuff+104
74
Cutter Stuff+105
85
Sinker Stuff+106
79
Slider Stuff+106
81
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Gusto, Ryan · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.341 2026-09-12: 0.3362026-09-13: 0.3362026-09-14: 0.3362026-09-18: 0.3392026-09-19: 0.3392026-09-20: 0.3392026-09-21: 0.3392026-09-22: 0.3392026-09-23: 0.3392026-09-24: 0.3412026-09-25: 0.3412026-09-26: 0.341 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 29%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Gusto, Ryan · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 54%54%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 53%53%Hard hit allowed: 43%43% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gusto, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 28.6%Changeup: 13.2%Sweeper: 13.2%Sinker: 12.2%Cutter: 12.0%Slider: 11.7% FF29% · 95 mphprimary pitch FF 29%CH 13%ST 13%SI 12%FC 12%SL 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Gusto, Ryan · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 29% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 94.7 mphFF95 mphChangeup: 13% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.2 mphCH87 mphSweeper: 13% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 43″ drop, 81.6 mphST82 mphSinker: 12% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 93.1 mphSI93 mphCutter: 12% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 89.3 mphFC89 mphSlider: 12% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 39″ drop, 85.4 mphSL85 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 62″ drop, 78.4 mphCU78 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 29.1% 227 108 qualified
SL 25.5% 199 106 limited sample
CH 12.9% 101 103 limited sample
SI 11.5% 90 106 limited sample
FC 11.1% 87 105 limited sample
CB 9.9% 77 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age27
Height6' 4"
Weight232 lb
Debut2025-03-31
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.52
K% Δ-0.027

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.4σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.351
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.341

Gusto’s wOBA-against sits at 0.351, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.341 — a gap of 0.010, 0.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 87 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching152026-09-23Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202621.5% K | 4.66 ERAProjection
2026-08-15 @ CIN2 ER / 6 K4.2 IP
2026-04-08 vs CIN0 ER / 1 K1.0 IP