Mithrandir Metrics
Player Philadelphia Phillies Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Philadelphia Phillies

Aaron Nola

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 2", 200 lb · Age 33

Cards
19
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Philadelphia Phillies Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20241483.5733330199.11971.20
20255106.011717094.1971.35
2026375.6820200103.01081.45
12 Seasons112963.9330530501818.219841.17
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
40
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
38
Arsenal6 metrics
45
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.42
ERA current pace5.75
ERA rolling p505.29
Observed weight65%
ERA
4.13 4.68 5.29 5.89 6.44
FIP
3.87 4.22 4.62 5.02 5.38
K%
20.6% 21.7% 23.0% 24.2% 25.3%
BB%
5.9% 6.5% 7.1% 7.8% 8.4%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.49
20
ERA5.75
14
BB%7.6%
65
K%23.8%
58 +23 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.318
45
Barrel allowed9.9%
21 -16 vs proj
Fastball velo91.9
15
Hard-hit allowed40.1%
42
Whiff%25.1%
66 +31 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-17
Curveball Stuff+103
66
Fastball Stuff+101
42
Mithrandir Stuff+102
47
Sinker Stuff+103
54
Changeup Stuff+103
59
Cutter Stuff+94
5
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Nola, Aaron · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.318 2026-07-06: 0.3272026-07-07: 0.3192026-07-08: 0.3192026-07-09: 0.3192026-07-10: 0.3192026-07-11: 0.3192026-07-12: 0.3182026-07-13: 0.3182026-07-14: 0.3182026-07-15: 0.3182026-07-16: 0.3182026-07-17: 0.318 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

6Pitches 2026Season 34%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Nola, Aaron · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 25%25%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 52%52%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Nola, Aaron · 2026 arsenal snapshot Knuckle Curve: 33.7%4-Seam Fastball: 23.8%Sinker: 19.9%Changeup: 13.7%Cutter: 7.8%Slider: 1.1% KC34% · 78 mphprimary pitch KC 34%FF 24%SI 20%CH 14%FC 8%SL 1% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Nola, Aaron · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ Knuckle Curve: 34% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 55″ drop, 78.2 mphKC78 mph4-Seam Fastball: 24% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 92.2 mphFF92 mphSinker: 20% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 91.5 mphSI92 mphChangeup: 14% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 85.4 mphCH85 mphCutter: 8% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 86.0 mphFC86 mphSlider: 1% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 83.2 mphSL83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
CB 33.6% 421 103 qualified
FB 25.1% 314 101 qualified
SI 19.6% 246 103 qualified
CH 12.9% 162 103 limited sample
FC 8.1% 101 94 limited sample
SL 0.6% 8 95 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age33
Height6' 2"
Weight200 lb
Debut2015-07-21
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+1.50
K% Δ+0.033

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

2.4σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.382
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.318

Nola’s wOBA-against sits at 0.382, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.318 — a gap of 0.064, 2.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 99 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching192026-07-16Knuckle Curve played up through KC/CH tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202620.5% K | 4.25 ERAProjection
2026-05-20 vs CIN4 ER / 5 K5.0 IP
2026-04-20 @ CHC5 ER / 5 K4.1 IP
2026-04-14 vs CHC3 ER / 5 K5.0 IP
2026-04-08 @ SF3 ER / 3 K6.0 IP
2026-04-03 @ COL1 ER / 9 K6.1 IP