Mithrandir Metrics
Player Los Angeles Dodgers Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Los Angeles Dodgers

Blake Snell

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 4", 225 lb · Age 33

Cards
12
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Los Angeles Dodgers Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024533.1220200104.01451.05
2025542.351111061.1721.26
2026411.8688038.2521.09
11 Seasons85633.1123023001196.214921.22
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
83
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
87
Arsenal5 metrics
73
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.32
ERA current pace1.86
ERA rolling p502.74
Observed weight40%
ERA
1.73 2.21 2.74 3.27 3.75
FIP
2.02 2.34 2.69 3.05 3.37
K%
26.0% 28.0% 30.3% 32.5% 34.5%
BB%
7.8% 8.8% 10.0% 11.1% 12.1%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.11
86
ERA1.86
97
BB%10.1%
37
K%32.7%
97
xwOBA allowed0.228
99 +20 vs proj
Barrel allowed1.1%
100 +49 vs proj
Fastball velo95.9
74
Hard-hit allowed15.7%
100
Whiff%32.8%
98
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+108
87
Mithrandir Stuff+106
85
Changeup Stuff+110
96
Curveball Stuff+103
65
Slider Stuff+100
33
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Snell, Blake · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.228 2026-09-12: 0.2252026-09-13: 0.2252026-09-14: 0.2252026-09-18: 0.2282026-09-19: 0.2282026-09-20: 0.2282026-09-21: 0.2282026-09-22: 0.2282026-09-23: 0.2282026-09-24: 0.2282026-09-25: 0.2282026-09-26: 0.228 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

4Pitches 2026Season 49%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Snell, Blake · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 43%43%Zone: 41%41%Whiff: 33%33%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 62%62%Hard hit allowed: 16%16% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Snell, Blake · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 48.6%Curveball: 22.1%Changeup: 18.1%Slider: 11.1% FF49% · 96 mphprimary pitch FF 49%CU 22%CH 18%SL 11% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Snell, Blake · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 49% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 95.9 mphFF96 mphCurveball: 22% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 52″ drop, 79.8 mphCU80 mphChangeup: 18% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 84.6 mphCH85 mphSlider: 11% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 88.7 mphSL89 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 48.8% 315 108 qualified
CB 21.9% 141 103 limited sample
CH 18.0% 116 110 limited sample
SL 11.3% 73 100 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age33
Height6' 4"
Weight225 lb
Debut2016-04-23
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-1.55
K% Δ+0.042

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.6σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.249
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.228

Snell’s wOBA-against sits at 0.249, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.228 — a gap of 0.021, 0.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 38 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching122026-09-11Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202628.5% K | 3.41 ERAProjection