Mithrandir Metrics
Player Washington Nationals Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Washington Nationals

Cade Cavalli

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 4", 223 lb · Age 27

Cards
19
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Washington Nationals Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20220114.541104.161.85
2025314.251010048.2401.48
2026643.7821210104.21191.31
3 Seasons964.2232320157.21651.38
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
57
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
57
Arsenal6 metrics
51
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.10
ERA current pace3.83
ERA rolling p503.93
Observed weight65%
ERA
2.84 3.35 3.93 4.50 5.01
FIP
2.66 3.00 3.38 3.75 4.09
K%
19.6% 20.8% 22.2% 23.6% 24.9%
BB%
5.6% 6.2% 6.9% 7.6% 8.2%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
46
ERA3.83
54
BB%7.1%
74
K%24.5%
64 +38 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.316
48
Barrel allowed7.1%
59
Fastball velo96.5
80
Hard-hit allowed39.7%
45
Whiff%22.0%
42
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-17
Curveball Stuff+102
51
Fastball Stuff+103
55
Mithrandir Stuff+102
51
Sinker Stuff+103
60
Changeup Stuff+104
64
Slider Stuff+98
25
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Cavalli, Cade · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.316 2026-07-06: 0.3152026-07-07: 0.3152026-07-08: 0.3152026-07-09: 0.3152026-07-10: 0.3152026-07-11: 0.3152026-07-12: 0.3152026-07-13: 0.3152026-07-14: 0.3162026-07-15: 0.3162026-07-16: 0.3162026-07-17: 0.316 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

8Pitches 2026Season 35%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Cavalli, Cade · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 22%22%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 40%40% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cavalli, Cade · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 35.0%Knuckle Curve: 27.3%Sinker: 15.5%Sweeper: 11.1%Changeup: 8.1%Cutter: 2.9% FF35% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 35%KC 27%SI 15%ST 11%CH 8%FC 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cavalli, Cade · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 35% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 96.7 mphFF97 mphKnuckle Curve: 27% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 49″ drop, 85.5 mphKC85 mphSinker: 15% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 96.1 mphSI96 mphSweeper: 11% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 45″ drop, 85.6 mphST86 mphChangeup: 8% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 88.8 mphCH89 mphCutter: 3% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 23″ drop, 93.1 mphFC93 mphSlow Curve: 0% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 58″ drop, 77.6 mphCS78 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 92.1 mphPO92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 35.4% 478 103 qualified
CB 28.8% 389 102 qualified
SI 15.4% 208 103 qualified
SL 11.7% 158 98 limited sample
CH 8.7% 118 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age27
Height6' 4"
Weight223 lb
Debut2022-08-26
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.40
K% Δ+0.055

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.9σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.340
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.316

Cavalli’s wOBA-against sits at 0.340, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.316 — a gap of 0.024, 0.9 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 101 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching192026-07-12Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/KC tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202619.0% K | 4.23 ERAProjection
2026-04-13 @ PIT4 ER / 2 K1.1 IP
2026-04-07 vs STL1 ER / 3 K4.2 IP
2026-04-01 @ PHI1 ER / 3 K6.0 IP
2026-03-26 @ CHC2 ER / 5 K3.2 IP