Mithrandir Metrics
Player St. Louis Cardinals Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / St. Louis Cardinals

Dustin May

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 6", 180 lb · Age 28

Cards
17
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club St. Louis Cardinals Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2023412.6399048.0340.94
20257114.9625230132.11231.42
2026564.551818093.0891.26
7 Seasons24264.0189750417.03861.21
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
56
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
53
Arsenal7 metrics
68
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.14
ERA current pace4.55
ERA rolling p504.40
Observed weight63%
ERA
3.28 3.81 4.40 4.98 5.51
FIP
2.79 3.16 3.58 3.99 4.36
K%
19.7% 20.9% 22.2% 23.5% 24.6%
BB%
6.2% 6.9% 7.6% 8.4% 9.0%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.28
57
ERA4.55
36
BB%7.0%
75 +26 vs proj
K%22.3%
49
xwOBA allowed0.301
65 +21 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.1%
74 +32 vs proj
Fastball velo96.8
84
Hard-hit allowed46.4%
8
Whiff%20.2%
27
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-17
Cutter Stuff+106
85
Fastball Stuff+105
76
Mithrandir Stuff+106
84
Slider Stuff+105
69
Changeup Stuff+104
61
Curveball Stuff+100
21
Sinker Stuff+106
82
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed May, Dustin · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.301 2026-07-06: 0.3052026-07-07: 0.3052026-07-08: 0.3022026-07-09: 0.3022026-07-10: 0.3022026-07-11: 0.3022026-07-12: 0.3022026-07-13: 0.3022026-07-14: 0.3012026-07-15: 0.3012026-07-16: 0.3012026-07-17: 0.301 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 26%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile May, Dustin · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 50%50%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 46%46% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal May, Dustin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 26.2%Cutter: 22.1%Sweeper: 19.5%Sinker: 18.1%Changeup: 7.1%Curveball: 7.0% FF26% · 97 mphprimary pitch FF 26%FC 22%ST 19%SI 18%CH 7%CU 7% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal May, Dustin · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 26% usage, 4″ horizontal break, 14″ drop, 96.9 mphFF97 mphCutter: 22% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 22″ drop, 93.3 mphFC93 mphSweeper: 19% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 41″ drop, 86.0 mphST86 mphSinker: 18% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 96.6 mphSI97 mphChangeup: 7% usage, 15″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 90.5 mphCH90 mphCurveball: 7% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 56″ drop, 83.3 mphCU83 mphPitch Out: 0% usage, 12″ horizontal break, 18″ drop, 95.7 mphPO96 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 26.0% 275 105 qualified
FC 23.2% 246 106 qualified
SL 19.2% 203 105 qualified
SI 17.8% 189 106 limited sample
CB 7.1% 75 100 limited sample
CH 6.7% 71 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age28
Height6' 6"
Weight180 lb
Debut2019-08-02
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+0.19
K% Δ+0.019

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.0σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.330
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.301

May’s wOBA-against sits at 0.330, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.301 — a gap of 0.029, 1.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 95 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching172026-07-12Four-Seam Fastball played up through SI/ST tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202620.4% K | 4.36 ERAProjection
2026-04-15 vs CLE1 ER / 4 K6.0 IP
2026-04-04 @ DET7 ER / 4 K3.1 IP
2026-03-29 vs TB6 ER / 3 K4.0 IP