Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cristopher Sánchez
Probable starter
|
PHI vs TB | 6.23 | 27.9% | 31.8% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Tarik Skubal
Probable starter
|
LAD vs SF | 6.17 | 27.4% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 18.1 | 10 | 4 |
Hunter Brown
Probable starter
|
HOU vs ATH | 6.08 | 29.8% | 28.9% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 2 |
Joe Ryan
Probable starter
|
MIN vs TEX | 6.06 | 27.8% | 27.3% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 10 | 6 |
José Soriano
Probable starter
|
TOR vs CIN | 5.96 | 26.9% | 30.1% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 5 |
Freddy Peralta
Probable starter
|
TB vs PHI | 5.55 | 27.4% | 28.1% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Gavin Williams
Probable starter
|
CLE vs KC | 5.55 | 27.5% | 32.9% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Jacob deGrom
Probable starter
|
TEX vs MIN | 5.22 | 28.2% | 31.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Casey Mize
Probable starter
|
SD vs AZ | 5.17 | 23.5% | 26.2% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 4 |
Reid Detmers
Probable starter
|
LAA vs SEA | 5.11 | 24.3% | 25.6% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 5 |
Nick Lodolo
Probable starter
|
CIN vs TOR | 4.81 | 24.0% | 27.5% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 0 |
Alec Gamboa
Probable starter
|
BOS vs CHC | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Brendan Beck
Probable starter
|
NYY vs BAL | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Eury Pérez
Probable starter
|
MIA vs ATL | 4.67 | 23.3% | 28.7% | 22.4% | 14.3 | 10 | 3 |
Yunior Marte
Probable starter
|
SF vs LAD | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Jacob Lopez
Probable starter
|
ATH vs HOU | 4.60 | 21.8% | 20.4% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 3 |
Bryce Miller
Probable starter
|
SEA vs LAA | 4.45 | 20.9% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Noah Cameron
Probable starter
|
KC vs CLE | 4.40 | 20.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
David Peterson
Probable starter
|
CHC vs BOS | 4.36 | 22.4% | 19.8% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 3 |
Trevor Rogers
Probable starter
|
BAL vs NYY | 4.35 | 21.4% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 10 | 4 |
Jefry Yan
Probable starter
|
NYM vs WSH | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Bubba Chandler
Probable starter
|
PIT vs DET | 4.15 | 22.4% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 4 |
Ryan Yarbrough
Probable starter
|
NYY vs BAL | 4.12 | 21.2% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 0 |
Brandon Pfaadt
Probable starter
|
AZ vs SD | 4.10 | 18.7% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 3 |
Sean Burke
Probable starter
|
CWS vs COL | 4.07 | 19.3% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Andrew Alvarez
Probable starter
|
WSH vs NYM | 4.04 | 21.3% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Brayan Bello
Probable starter
|
BOS vs CHC | 3.92 | 16.9% | 14.8% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 3 |
Jackson Jobe
Probable starter
|
DET vs PIT | 3.91 | 19.5% | 18.6% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Ray Kerr
Probable starter
|
ATL vs MIA | 3.86 | 21.9% | 26.1% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Robert Gasser
Probable starter
|
MIL vs STL | 3.79 | 20.5% | 17.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Clay Holmes
Probable starter
|
CHC vs BOS | 3.70 | 18.8% | 16.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 3 |
Brandon Young
Probable starter
|
BAL vs NYY | 3.31 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Tomoyuki Sugano
Probable starter
|
COL vs CWS | 3.04 | 17.5% | 17.8% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 3 |
Michael McGreevy
Probable starter
|
STL vs MIL | 2.87 | 15.0% | 12.8% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 10 | 6 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.