Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tyler Glasnow
Probable starter
|
LAD vs MIA | 5.89 | 29.3% | 27.5% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 2 |
Ian Seymour
Probable starter
|
TB vs HOU | 5.46 | 26.8% | 27.4% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 1 |
Kyle Bradish
Probable starter
|
BAL vs TOR | 5.39 | 25.1% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 5 |
Paul Skenes
Probable starter
|
PIT vs CHC | 5.34 | 27.3% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Gerrit Cole
Probable starter
|
NYY vs NYM | 4.86 | 21.9% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Bryan Woo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs ATH | 4.74 | 21.0% | 25.6% | 22.4% | 18.2 | 10 | 3 |
Michael King
Probable starter
|
SD vs SF | 4.72 | 23.2% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Andrew Sears
Probable starter
|
DET vs COL | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Cesar Perdomo
Probable starter
|
SF vs SD | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Gage Jump
Probable starter
|
ATH vs SEA | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Spencer Miles
Probable starter
|
TOR vs BAL | 4.67 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Ranger Suarez
Probable starter
|
BOS vs KC | 4.65 | 20.6% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Connor Prielipp
Probable starter
|
MIN vs CLE | 4.54 | 22.1% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Brandon Pfaadt
Probable starter
|
AZ vs TEX | 4.48 | 18.7% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 3 |
Tyler Mahle
Probable starter
|
ATL vs PHI | 4.41 | 21.6% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Daniel Espino
Probable starter
|
CLE vs MIN | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Tim Mayza
Probable starter
|
PHI vs ATL | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Walbert Ureña
Probable starter
|
LAA vs WSH | 4.29 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Sean Newcomb
Probable starter
|
CWS vs STL | 4.22 | 23.5% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 0 |
Randy Dobnak
Probable starter
|
KC vs BOS | 4.18 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 1 |
Clay Holmes
Probable starter
|
CHC vs PIT | 4.08 | 18.8% | 16.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 3 |
Andrew Alvarez
Probable starter
|
WSH vs LAA | 4.04 | 21.3% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Peter Lambert
Probable starter
|
HOU vs TB | 4.01 | 23.8% | 23.2% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Brady Singer
Probable starter
|
CIN vs MIL | 3.95 | 19.0% | 17.8% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 4 |
Shane Drohan
Probable starter
|
MIL vs CIN | 3.86 | 21.0% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 1 |
Kumar Rocker
Probable starter
|
TEX vs AZ | 3.85 | 20.6% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 10 | 2 |
Zac Thornton
Probable starter
|
NYM vs NYY | 3.72 | 21.1% | 20.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 1 |
Tanner Gordon
Probable starter
|
COL vs DET | 3.62 | 19.5% | 25.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 0 |
Kyle Leahy
Probable starter
|
STL vs CWS | 3.58 | 18.7% | 16.6% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 4 |
Tyler Phillips
Probable starter
|
MIA vs LAD | 3.51 | 21.3% | 17.6% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.