Mithrandir Metrics
Player Toronto Blue Jays Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Toronto Blue Jays

Max Scherzer

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 3", 208 lb · Age 42

Cards
22
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Toronto Blue Jays Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024243.9599043.1401.15
2025555.191717085.0821.29
2026396.141717077.2611.36
19 Seasons2241263.2950049103040.235501.09
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
31
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
34
Arsenal6 metrics
49
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.57
ERA current pace6.07
ERA rolling p505.47
Observed weight60%
ERA
4.38 4.90 5.47 6.04 6.55
FIP
4.41 4.70 5.02 5.34 5.63
K%
17.0% 18.3% 19.8% 21.2% 22.5%
BB%
7.3% 8.1% 8.8% 9.6% 10.3%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.35
47
ERA6.07
11
BB%10.1%
36 -39 vs proj
K%17.9%
20 -28 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.320
41
Barrel allowed9.1%
25
Fastball velo93.0
26
Hard-hit allowed33.5%
84
Whiff%18.4%
15 -22 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Fastball Stuff+105
71
Mithrandir Stuff+103
58
Slider Stuff+101
41
Changeup Stuff+103
59
Curveball Stuff+103
55
Cutter Stuff+96
10
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Scherzer, Max · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.320 2026-09-12: 0.3232026-09-13: 0.3232026-09-14: 0.3232026-09-18: 0.3192026-09-19: 0.3192026-09-20: 0.3202026-09-21: 0.3202026-09-22: 0.3202026-09-23: 0.3202026-09-24: 0.3202026-09-25: 0.3202026-09-26: 0.320 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 48%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Scherzer, Max · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 18%18%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 50%50%Hard hit allowed: 33%33% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Scherzer, Max · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 48.0%Slider: 17.3%Changeup: 15.1%Curveball: 14.2%Cutter: 5.4% FF48% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 48%SL 17%CH 15%CU 14%FC 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Scherzer, Max · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 48% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 15″ drop, 93.0 mphFF93 mphSlider: 17% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 85.3 mphSL85 mphChangeup: 15% usage, 9″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 83.9 mphCH84 mphCurveball: 14% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 57″ drop, 74.6 mphCU75 mphCutter: 5% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 87.8 mphFC88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 47.7% 525 105 qualified
SL 19.5% 215 101 qualified
CB 15.1% 166 103 limited sample
CH 14.5% 159 103 limited sample
FC 3.2% 35 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age42
Height6' 3"
Weight208 lb
Debut2008-04-29
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+1.74
K% Δ-0.041

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.0σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.349
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.320

Scherzer’s wOBA-against sits at 0.349, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.320 — a gap of 0.029, 1.0 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 82 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching222026-09-23Four-Seam Fastball played up through FF/SL tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202622.0% K | 4.34 ERAProjection
2026-04-12 vs MIN8 ER / 3 K2.1 IP
2026-04-06 vs LAD2 ER / 2 K2.0 IP
2026-03-31 vs COL1 ER / 4 K6.0 IP