Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Garrett Crochet
Probable starter
|
BOS vs DET | 6.90 | 27.6% | 25.3% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 6 | 4 |
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable starter
|
MIL vs MIA | 6.29 | 32.3% | 33.2% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 5 | 4 |
MacKenzie Gore
Probable starter
|
TEX vs SEA | 6.07 | 29.6% | 31.7% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 5 | 4 |
Kevin Gausman
Probable starter
|
TOR vs AZ | 5.85 | 28.3% | 31.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 5 | 4 |
Joey Cantillo
Probable starter
|
CLE vs BAL | 5.66 | 26.4% | 29.3% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 5 | 3 |
Cole Ragans
Probable starter
|
KC vs NYY | 5.64 | 28.3% | 29.0% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 5 | 4 |
Ryan Weathers
Probable starter
|
NYY vs KC | 5.55 | 25.9% | 29.4% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 5 | 4 |
Robbie Ray
Probable starter
|
SF vs WSH | 5.50 | 25.9% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 5 | 4 |
Bryan Woo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs TEX | 5.40 | 21.0% | 25.6% | 22.4% | 18.2 | 5 | 3 |
Reid Detmers
Probable starter
|
LAA vs SD | 5.05 | 22.4% | 26.1% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 5 | 3 |
Michael King
Probable starter
|
SD vs LAA | 5.01 | 23.2% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 5 | 4 |
Jeffrey Springs
Probable starter
|
ATH vs CWS | 5.00 | 22.6% | 22.1% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 5 | 3 |
Mike Burrows
Probable starter
|
HOU vs STL | 4.99 | 21.1% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 6 | 4 |
Eury Pérez
Probable starter
|
MIA vs MIL | 4.90 | 23.3% | 28.7% | 22.4% | 14.3 | 6 | 3 |
Framber Valdez
Probable starter
|
DET vs BOS | 4.87 | 18.3% | 18.0% | 22.4% | 17.9 | 5 | 4 |
Ryne Nelson
Probable starter
|
AZ vs TOR | 4.71 | 21.3% | 23.8% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 6 | 4 |
Grant Holmes
Probable starter
|
ATL vs PHI | 4.67 | 22.1% | 19.3% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 6 | 4 |
Trevor Rogers
Probable starter
|
BAL vs CLE | 4.65 | 21.4% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 17.5 | 5 | 4 |
Bailey Ober
Probable starter
|
MIN vs CIN | 4.59 | 19.5% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 6 | 4 |
Mitch Keller
Probable starter
|
PIT vs TB | 4.59 | 19.0% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 5 | 3 |
Michael Lorenzen
Probable starter
|
COL vs LAD | 4.44 | 18.0% | 18.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 5 | 3 |
Andrew Painter
Probable starter
|
PHI vs ATL | 4.26 | 21.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 2 |
Brady Singer
Probable starter
|
CIN vs MIN | 4.21 | 19.6% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 5 | 3 |
Noah Schultz
Probable starter
|
CWS vs ATH | 4.14 | 21.6% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 5 | 1 |
Shane McClanahan
Probable starter
|
TB vs PIT | 4.09 | 22.0% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 5 | 3 |
Javier Assad
Probable starter
|
CHC vs NYM | 3.83 | 17.5% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 6 | 2 |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable starter
|
STL vs HOU | 3.70 | 16.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 6 | 4 |
Roki Sasaki
Probable starter
|
LAD vs COL | 3.61 | 20.5% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 7 | 3 |
Pj Poulin
Probable starter
|
WSH vs SF | 3.33 | 22.3% | 22.8% | 22.4% | 13.1 | 5 | 2 |
Tobias Myers
Probable starter
|
NYM vs CHC | 3.29 | 20.2% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 13.9 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.