Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable starter
|
MIL vs HOU | 5.98 | 32.3% | 33.2% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 4 |
Nolan McLean
Probable starter
|
NYM vs MIA | 5.89 | 28.7% | 32.5% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 4 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable starter
|
LAD vs PHI | 5.87 | 25.0% | 24.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Kyle Bradish
Probable starter
|
BAL vs TOR | 5.86 | 26.8% | 27.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Jack Leiter
Probable starter
|
TEX vs KC | 5.24 | 25.2% | 29.2% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 10 | 4 |
Robbie Ray
Probable starter
|
SF vs COL | 5.20 | 25.9% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 4 |
Nick Lodolo
Probable starter
|
CIN vs ATL | 5.17 | 24.0% | 27.5% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 0 |
Braxton Ashcraft
Probable starter
|
PIT vs MIN | 4.98 | 26.1% | 26.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 3 |
Tanner Bibee
Probable starter
|
CLE vs BOS | 4.97 | 21.6% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 6 |
Spencer Strider
Probable starter
|
ATL vs CIN | 4.84 | 23.6% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 0 |
Will Warren
Probable starter
|
NYY vs ATH | 4.74 | 24.9% | 25.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Zebby Matthews
Probable starter
|
MIN vs PIT | 4.68 | 23.7% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Tatsuya Imai
Probable starter
|
HOU vs MIL | 4.62 | 25.0% | 28.3% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 2 |
Michael Wacha
Probable starter
|
KC vs TEX | 4.60 | 21.1% | 22.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 10 | 4 |
Jacob Lopez
Probable starter
|
ATH vs NYY | 4.59 | 21.8% | 20.4% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 3 |
Bryce Miller
Probable starter
|
SEA vs AZ | 4.43 | 20.9% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 0 |
Spencer Miles
Probable starter
|
TOR vs BAL | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Ranger Suarez
Probable starter
|
BOS vs CLE | 4.25 | 20.6% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Shane McClanahan
Probable starter
|
TB vs LAA | 4.16 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 3 |
Sean Burke
Probable starter
|
CWS vs DET | 4.05 | 19.3% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Merrill Kelly
Probable starter
|
AZ vs SEA | 3.98 | 19.6% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 10 | 2 |
Tanner Gordon
Probable starter
|
COL vs SF | 3.98 | 19.5% | 25.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 0 |
Zack Littell
Probable starter
|
WSH vs SD | 3.96 | 18.8% | 18.3% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 4 |
Andrew Painter
Probable starter
|
PHI vs LAD | 3.88 | 21.8% | 21.7% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 2 |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable starter
|
STL vs CHC | 3.83 | 16.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Griffin Canning
Probable starter
|
SD vs WSH | 3.70 | 20.5% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 0 |
Jordan Wicks
Probable starter
|
CHC vs STL | 3.68 | 21.9% | 16.7% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Jack Kochanowicz
Probable starter
|
LAA vs TB | 3.54 | 19.2% | 19.3% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 4 |
Janson Junk
Probable starter
|
MIA vs NYM | 3.19 | 16.6% | 16.0% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 5 |
Keider Montero
Probable starter
|
DET vs CWS | 3.10 | 19.5% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 1 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.