Mithrandir Metrics
Player Baltimore Orioles Refreshed Jun 14 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Baltimore Orioles

Trevor Rogers

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 5", 230 lb · Age 28

Cards
14
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Baltimore Orioles Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
20242114.9225250124.1971.58
2025931.8118180109.21030.90
2026375.861313066.0481.45
7 Seasons27444.051151150586.05691.32
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-14
31
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
33
Arsenal6 metrics
48
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-14
ERA preseason3.88
ERA current pace6.15
ERA rolling p505.12
Observed weight55%
ERA
4.16 4.62 5.12 5.63 6.08
FIP
3.34 3.77 4.24 4.71 5.14
K%
16.5% 17.7% 19.0% 20.3% 21.5%
BB%
5.5% 6.2% 7.0% 7.8% 8.5%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-14
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.48
24
ERA6.15
9
BB%6.9%
74
K%17.6%
16 -22 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.337
29
Barrel allowed7.5%
51
Fastball velo93.1
27
Hard-hit allowed42.1%
33
Whiff%20.4%
29
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-06-14
Fastball Stuff+104
61
Mithrandir Stuff+103
60
Changeup Stuff+105
67
Cutter Stuff+99
23
Sinker Stuff+104
61
Slider Stuff+96
16
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Rogers, Trevor · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.337 2026-06-03: 0.3372026-06-04: 0.3372026-06-05: 0.3282026-06-06: 0.3282026-06-07: 0.3282026-06-08: 0.3282026-06-09: 0.3282026-06-10: 0.3282026-06-11: 0.3372026-06-12: 0.3372026-06-13: 0.3372026-06-14: 0.337 2026-06-03 2026-06-14 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 42%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Rogers, Trevor · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 40%40%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 20%20%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 54%54%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rogers, Trevor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 41.7%Changeup: 21.6%Sinker: 12.9%Cutter: 12.0%Sweeper: 11.8% FF42% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 42%CH 22%SI 13%FC 12%ST 12% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rogers, Trevor · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 42% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.1 mphFF93 mphChangeup: 22% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.1 mphCH87 mphSinker: 13% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 93.0 mphSI93 mphCutter: 12% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 37″ drop, 82.5 mphFC83 mphSweeper: 12% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 78.1 mphST78 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 42.5% 360 104 qualified
CH 23.4% 198 105 limited sample
SI 13.5% 114 104 limited sample
FC 10.7% 91 99 limited sample
SL 9.9% 84 96 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age28
Height6' 5"
Weight230 lb
Debut2020-08-25
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+2.34
K% Δ-0.032

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.8σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.391
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.337

Rogers’s wOBA-against sits at 0.391, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.337 — a gap of 0.054, 1.8 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 65 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching142026-05-244-Seam Fastball played up through CH/FC tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202620.8% K | 3.81 ERAProjection
2026-04-14 vs AZ4 ER / 6 K4.2 IP
2026-04-07 @ CWS2 ER / 6 K6.0 IP
2026-04-01 vs TEX2 ER / 3 K6.0 IP
2026-03-26 vs MIN0 ER / 5 K7.0 IP