Mithrandir Metrics
Player Cleveland Guardians Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Cleveland Guardians

Joey Cantillo

P · Bats/Throws L/L · 6' 4", 225 lb · Age 26

Cards
29
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Cleveland Guardians Position P Roster Current MLB team Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
2024244.8998038.2441.29
2025533.213413195.11081.26
20261193.6233300159.01711.42
3 Seasons18163.6676511293.03231.35
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
49
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
49
Arsenal6 metrics
28
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason4.05
ERA current pace3.74
ERA rolling p503.82
Observed weight75%
ERA
2.64 3.20 3.82 4.44 5.00
FIP
3.40 3.63 3.89 4.16 4.39
K%
23.0% 23.9% 24.9% 26.0% 26.9%
BB%
9.5% 10.2% 10.9% 11.6% 12.2%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.42
33
ERA3.74
61
BB%11.5%
22 -18 vs proj
K%25.2%
72
xwOBA allowed0.308
57
Barrel allowed7.4%
51
Fastball velo92.2
18
Hard-hit allowed39.4%
43
Whiff%27.9%
86 +21 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-09-26
Changeup Stuff+99
27
Curveball Stuff+103
57
Fastball Stuff+98
22
Mithrandir Stuff+98
19
Cutter Stuff+97
13
Slider Stuff+99
30
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Cantillo, Joey · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.308 2026-09-12: 0.3162026-09-13: 0.3142026-09-14: 0.3142026-09-18: 0.3142026-09-19: 0.3102026-09-20: 0.3102026-09-21: 0.3102026-09-22: 0.3102026-09-23: 0.3102026-09-24: 0.3102026-09-25: 0.3102026-09-26: 0.308 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 33%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Cantillo, Joey · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 37%37%Zone: 48%48%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 18%18%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 39%39% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cantillo, Joey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 32.9%Curveball: 30.5%Changeup: 24.6%Cutter: 8.0%Slider: 4.0% FF33% · 92 mphprimary pitch FF 33%CU 30%CH 25%FC 8%SL 4% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Cantillo, Joey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 18″36″54″72″ 4-Seam Fastball: 33% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 92.2 mphFF92 mphCurveball: 30% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 60″ drop, 80.0 mphCU80 mphChangeup: 25% usage, 7″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 81.0 mphCH81 mphCutter: 8% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 29″ drop, 87.1 mphFC87 mphSlider: 4% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 46″ drop, 82.8 mphSL83 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 34.2% 700 98 qualified
CB 28.3% 579 103 qualified
CH 24.5% 501 99 qualified
FC 7.6% 156 97 limited sample
SL 5.3% 108 99 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age26
Height6' 4"
Weight225 lb
Debut2024-07-28
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ-0.19
K% Δ+0.008

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

1.1σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.335
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.308

Cantillo’s wOBA-against sits at 0.335, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.308 — a gap of 0.028, 1.1 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 160 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching292026-09-07Curveball played up through CU/FC tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202624.5% K | 3.93 ERAProjection
2026-08-15 vs SD1 ER / 7 K6.0 IP
2026-04-14 @ STL2 ER / 4 K6.0 IP
2026-04-08 vs KC1 ER / 9 K5.2 IP
2026-04-03 vs CHC1 ER / 6 K5.1 IP