Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chris Sale
Probable starter
|
ATL vs BOS | 6.26 | 28.0% | 27.1% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 8 | 5 |
Jack Flaherty
Probable starter
|
DET vs LAA | 5.79 | 26.3% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 4 |
Nathan Eovaldi
Probable starter
|
TEX vs HOU | 5.75 | 25.6% | 27.6% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 10 | 4 |
Paul Skenes
Probable starter
|
PIT vs CHC | 5.71 | 27.3% | 27.0% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 4 |
Spencer Arrighetti
Probable starter
|
HOU vs TEX | 4.81 | 23.1% | 22.7% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 2 |
Davis Martin
Probable starter
|
CWS vs MIN | 4.36 | 20.7% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 10 | 3 |
Grayson Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
LAA vs DET | 4.29 | 21.9% | 25.5% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Payton Tolle
Probable starter
|
BOS vs ATL | 4.05 | 22.8% | 24.0% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 0 |
Simeon Woods Richardson
Probable starter
|
MIN vs CWS | 3.97 | 18.6% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Colin Rea
Probable starter
|
CHC vs PIT | 3.90 | 18.5% | 23.6% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 2 |
Chris Bassitt
Probable starter
|
BAL vs TOR | 3.78 | 16.6% | 12.7% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 4 |
Patrick Corbin
Probable starter
|
TOR vs BAL | 3.73 | 19.9% | 21.0% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 0 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.