Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jesús Luzardo
Probable starter
|
PHI vs LAD | 5.93 | 26.9% | 28.8% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 3 |
Bryan Woo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs AZ | 5.09 | 21.0% | 25.6% | 22.4% | 18.2 | 10 | 3 |
Ryan Weathers
Probable starter
|
NYY vs ATH | 4.87 | 25.9% | 29.4% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 4 |
Ben Brown
Probable starter
|
CHC vs STL | 4.76 | 23.6% | 21.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 0 |
Parker Messick
Probable starter
|
CLE vs BOS | 4.74 | 23.1% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Seth Lugo
Probable starter
|
KC vs TEX | 4.73 | 22.6% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 17.3 | 10 | 5 |
Michael King
Probable starter
|
SD vs WSH | 4.70 | 23.2% | 22.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Reid Detmers
Probable starter
|
LAA vs TB | 4.58 | 22.1% | 25.8% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 4 |
Framber Valdez
Probable starter
|
DET vs CWS | 4.57 | 18.3% | 18.0% | 22.4% | 17.9 | 10 | 4 |
Anthony Kay
Probable starter
|
CWS vs DET | 4.53 | 22.6% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 2 |
J.t. Ginn
Probable starter
|
ATH vs NYY | 4.52 | 22.1% | 20.9% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 2 |
Trey Yesavage
Probable starter
|
TOR vs BAL | 4.51 | 25.5% | 27.4% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Peter Lambert
Probable starter
|
HOU vs MIL | 4.39 | 23.8% | 23.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 1 |
Christian Scott
Probable starter
|
NYM vs MIA | 4.31 | 21.9% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Sonny Gray
Probable starter
|
BOS vs CLE | 4.30 | 20.1% | 16.9% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 4 |
Brady Singer
Probable starter
|
CIN vs ATL | 4.28 | 19.6% | 17.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 3 |
Drew Rasmussen
Probable starter
|
TB vs LAA | 4.28 | 24.1% | 24.9% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 3 |
Mitch Keller
Probable starter
|
PIT vs MIN | 4.28 | 19.0% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 10 | 3 |
Kumar Rocker
Probable starter
|
TEX vs KC | 4.22 | 20.6% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 10 | 2 |
Foster Griffin
Probable starter
|
WSH vs SD | 4.15 | 20.9% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Ryne Nelson
Probable starter
|
AZ vs SEA | 4.07 | 21.3% | 23.8% | 22.4% | 16.0 | 10 | 4 |
Bailey Ober
Probable starter
|
MIN vs PIT | 3.97 | 19.5% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Roki Sasaki
Probable starter
|
LAD vs PHI | 3.80 | 20.5% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 3 |
Ryan Feltner
Probable starter
|
COL vs SF | 3.80 | 19.0% | 17.3% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 3 |
Brandon Young
Probable starter
|
BAL vs TOR | 3.67 | 18.6% | 15.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 1 |
Brandon Sproat
Probable starter
|
MIL vs HOU | 3.59 | 20.7% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 1 |
Kyle Leahy
Probable starter
|
STL vs CHC | 3.57 | 18.7% | 16.6% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 4 |
Adrian Houser
Probable starter
|
SF vs COL | 3.42 | 16.5% | 14.7% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 10 | 3 |
Tyler Phillips
Probable starter
|
MIA vs NYM | 3.12 | 21.3% | 17.6% | 22.4% | 14.9 | 10 | 0 |
Martín Pérez
Probable starter
|
ATL vs CIN | 3.10 | 16.6% | 13.5% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 3 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.