Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jacob Misiorowski
Probable starter
|
MIL vs STL | 6.36 | 32.3% | 33.2% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 4 |
Jesús Luzardo
Probable starter
|
PHI vs SD | 5.93 | 26.9% | 28.8% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 10 | 3 |
Nolan McLean
Probable starter
|
NYM vs CIN | 5.89 | 28.7% | 32.5% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 10 | 4 |
Kyle Bradish
Probable starter
|
BAL vs TB | 5.86 | 26.8% | 27.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 4 |
Michael Wacha
Probable starter
|
KC vs NYY | 5.29 | 21.1% | 22.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 5 | 4 |
Tanner Bibee
Probable starter
|
CLE vs WSH | 5.28 | 21.6% | 19.5% | 22.4% | 16.7 | 5 | 6 |
Trey Yesavage
Probable starter
|
TOR vs MIA | 5.19 | 25.5% | 27.4% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 5 | 1 |
Emmet Sheehan
Probable starter
|
LAD vs COL | 5.07 | 25.5% | 27.7% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 10 | 3 |
Nick Lodolo
Probable starter
|
CIN vs NYM | 4.79 | 24.0% | 27.5% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 0 |
Ben Brown
Probable starter
|
CHC vs PIT | 4.76 | 23.6% | 21.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 0 |
Will Warren
Probable starter
|
NYY vs KC | 4.74 | 24.9% | 25.7% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 10 | 3 |
Zebby Matthews
Probable starter
|
MIN vs CWS | 4.68 | 23.7% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 0 |
Landen Roupp
Probable starter
|
SF vs AZ | 4.64 | 24.1% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 2 |
Luis Castillo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs ATH | 4.56 | 22.5% | 24.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
Anthony Kay
Probable starter
|
CWS vs MIN | 4.53 | 22.6% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 2 |
Aaron Civale
Probable starter
|
ATH vs SEA | 4.35 | 18.5% | 17.3% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 5 | 5 |
Merrill Kelly
Probable starter
|
AZ vs SF | 4.28 | 19.6% | 17.2% | 22.4% | 16.9 | 5 | 2 |
Tatsuya Imai
Probable starter
|
HOU vs TEX | 4.24 | 25.0% | 28.3% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 2 |
Kumar Rocker
Probable starter
|
TEX vs HOU | 4.22 | 20.6% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 10 | 2 |
Zack Littell
Probable starter
|
WSH vs CLE | 3.89 | 18.8% | 18.3% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 5 | 4 |
Carmen Mlodzinski
Probable starter
|
PIT vs CHC | 3.87 | 20.8% | 22.2% | 22.4% | 13.8 | 5 | 3 |
Randy Vásquez
Probable starter
|
SD vs PHI | 3.78 | 17.2% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 5 | 4 |
Shane McClanahan
Probable starter
|
TB vs BAL | 3.78 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 3 |
Tanner Gordon
Probable starter
|
COL vs LAD | 3.60 | 19.5% | 25.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 0 |
Janson Junk
Probable starter
|
MIA vs TOR | 3.49 | 16.6% | 16.0% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 5 | 5 |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable starter
|
STL vs MIL | 3.45 | 16.9% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 4 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.