Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Joe Ryan
Probable starter
|
MIN vs CWS | 5.91 | 27.8% | 27.3% | 22.4% | 16.5 | 6 | 6 |
Chase Burns
Probable starter
|
CIN vs NYM | 5.86 | 31.8% | 36.8% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 2 |
Cam Schlittler
Probable starter
|
NYY vs KC | 5.85 | 29.3% | 29.7% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 6 | 6 |
Jack Leiter
Probable starter
|
TEX vs HOU | 5.48 | 25.2% | 29.2% | 22.4% | 15.4 | 6 | 4 |
Kyle Harrison
Probable starter
|
MIL vs STL | 5.37 | 26.1% | 29.0% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 6 | 4 |
Joey Cantillo
Probable starter
|
CLE vs WSH | 5.35 | 26.4% | 29.3% | 22.4% | 15.9 | 10 | 3 |
Shane Baz
Probable starter
|
BAL vs TB | 5.28 | 23.0% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 16.3 | 6 | 3 |
Aaron Nola
Probable starter
|
PHI vs SD | 5.17 | 23.4% | 23.3% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 6 | 5 |
Braxton Ashcraft
Probable starter
|
PIT vs CHC | 4.98 | 26.1% | 26.7% | 22.4% | 15.0 | 10 | 3 |
Luis Severino
Probable starter
|
ATH vs SEA | 4.84 | 22.9% | 25.0% | 22.4% | 15.8 | 10 | 4 |
Spencer Strider
Probable starter
|
ATL vs BOS | 4.84 | 23.6% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 0 |
Sandy Alcantara
Probable starter
|
MIA vs TOR | 4.70 | 19.3% | 17.9% | 22.4% | 18.6 | 10 | 4 |
Tyler Mahle
Probable starter
|
SF vs AZ | 4.65 | 21.6% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 6 | 4 |
Ranger Suarez
Probable starter
|
BOS vs ATL | 4.63 | 20.6% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 17.2 | 10 | 4 |
Sean Burke
Probable starter
|
CWS vs MIN | 4.29 | 19.3% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 14.7 | 6 | 3 |
Eric Lauer
Probable starter
|
LAD vs COL | 4.27 | 22.4% | 20.5% | 22.4% | 14.4 | 10 | 3 |
Emerson Hancock
Probable starter
|
SEA vs ATH | 4.14 | 21.5% | 23.4% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 6 | 5 |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable starter
|
AZ vs SF | 4.02 | 17.5% | 16.5% | 22.4% | 16.4 | 10 | 3 |
Kyle Freeland
Probable starter
|
COL vs LAD | 3.92 | 18.7% | 18.8% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 6 | 4 |
Jack Kochanowicz
Probable starter
|
LAA vs DET | 3.79 | 19.2% | 19.3% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 6 | 4 |
Randy Vásquez
Probable starter
|
SD vs PHI | 3.72 | 17.2% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 6 | 4 |
Jordan Wicks
Probable starter
|
CHC vs PIT | 3.68 | 21.9% | 16.7% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 0 |
Jason Alexander
Probable starter
|
HOU vs TEX | 3.64 | 20.8% | 20.2% | 22.4% | 15.7 | 10 | 0 |
Keider Montero
Probable starter
|
DET vs LAA | 3.48 | 19.5% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 1 |
Bailey Falter
Probable starter
|
KC vs NYY | 3.28 | 17.3% | 17.6% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 10 | 0 |
Cade Cavalli
Probable starter
|
WSH vs CLE | 3.04 | 18.9% | 19.7% | 22.4% | 14.0 | 10 | 4 |
Braydon Fisher
Probable starter
|
TOR vs MIA | 2.98 | 20.6% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 13.2 | 10 | 1 |
Griffin Jax
Probable starter
|
TB vs BAL | 2.95 | 21.9% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 13.5 | 10 | 0 |
Michael McGreevy
Probable starter
|
STL vs MIL | 2.83 | 14.0% | 11.8% | 22.4% | 16.2 | 6 | 5 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.