Mithrandir Metrics
Player Pittsburgh Pirates Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Player profile / Pittsburgh Pirates

Mitch Keller

P · Bats/Throws R/R · 6' 3", 213 lb · Age 30

Cards
19
Modules
1
Live Δ
yes
Club Pittsburgh Pirates Position P Roster Active Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line

Season by season

3D Pitch Lab Projections
WLERAGGSSVIPSOWHIP
202411124.2531310178.01661.30
20256154.1932320176.11501.26
2026675.1419190103.1771.33
8 Seasons48724.581841820981.19141.38
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
32
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
31
Arsenal7 metrics
57
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.41
ERA current pace5.14
ERA rolling p504.90
Observed weight67%
ERA
3.97 4.41 4.90 5.38 5.82
FIP
3.82 4.07 4.34 4.61 4.86
K%
17.0% 18.1% 19.2% 20.4% 21.4%
BB%
6.4% 7.0% 7.7% 8.3% 8.9%
Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.34
46
ERA5.14
22
BB%8.2%
58 -21 vs proj
K%18.4%
22 -15 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.354
13 -16 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.6%
51
Fastball velo93.0
26
Hard-hit allowed42.4%
27
Whiff%18.6%
15
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

How nasty this pitcher's stuff grades in our pitch-level model. Missing coverage is shown explicitly.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+105
74
Mithrandir Stuff+104
65
Slider Stuff+105
77
Changeup Stuff+108
86
Curveball Stuff+99
12
Cutter Stuff+104
71
Sinker Stuff+97
16
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Keller, Mitch · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.354 2026-07-06: 0.3542026-07-07: 0.3542026-07-08: 0.3542026-07-09: 0.3542026-07-10: 0.3542026-07-11: 0.3542026-07-12: 0.3542026-07-13: 0.3542026-07-14: 0.3542026-07-15: 0.3542026-07-16: 0.3542026-07-17: 0.354 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

7Pitches 2026Season 32%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Keller, Mitch · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 49%49%Whiff: 19%19%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 48%48%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

Watch the pitches in 3D →

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Keller, Mitch · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 31.7%Sinker: 18.9%Sweeper: 16.8%Curveball: 9.2%Changeup: 8.6%Slider: 8.1% FF32% · 93 mphprimary pitch FF 32%SI 19%ST 17%CU 9%CH 9%SL 8% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Keller, Mitch · 2026 arsenal snapshot 15″30″45″60″ 4-Seam Fastball: 32% usage, 3″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 93.4 mphFF93 mphSinker: 19% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 25″ drop, 92.3 mphSI92 mphSweeper: 17% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 40″ drop, 82.1 mphST82 mphCurveball: 9% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 59″ drop, 77.9 mphCU78 mphChangeup: 9% usage, 11″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 88.8 mphCH89 mphSlider: 8% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 34″ drop, 87.5 mphSL87 mphCutter: 7% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 24″ drop, 89.8 mphFC90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 33.9% 360 105 qualified
SL 25.1% 267 105 qualified
SI 16.4% 174 97 limited sample
CH 10.7% 114 108 limited sample
CB 7.1% 76 99 limited sample
FC 6.8% 72 104 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Reference layer

Current snapshot

Age30
Height6' 3"
Weight213 lb
Debut2019-05-27
Live layer

Delta / regression

ERA Δ+1.01
K% Δ-0.023

positive regression

Regression watch

Unlucky so far. Better days ahead.

0.3σ gap
wOBA-against (actual)0.362
xwOBA-against (deserved)0.354

Keller’s wOBA-against sits at 0.362, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.354 — a gap of 0.008, 0.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 110 IP. The results have been worse than the process deserves; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to climb back toward the underlying level.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

ModuleCardsLatestSignal
Pitching192026-07-09Sinker played up through SI/ST tunnel quality
Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Pitcher Projections 202620.7% K | 4.13 ERAProjection
2026-04-14 vs WSH5 ER / 3 K4.0 IP
2026-04-08 vs SD0 ER / 4 K6.0 IP
2026-04-03 vs BAL2 ER / 4 K6.0 IP