Projections
Daily Pitcher Strikeout Leaders
The first Mithrandir Metrics projections surface. This page turns the existing V1 model output into a daily leaderboard with just enough supporting context to explain why each arm rates where it does.
Overview
Projection Snapshot
Leaders sorted from the same saved artifact the projection pipeline writes each run.
Leaderboard
Projected Strikeout Leaders
| Pitcher | Matchup | Proj K | Pitcher K% | Last 5 K% | Opp K% 14d | Outs / Start | Rest | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jesús Luzardo
Probable starter
|
PHI vs CHC | 6.17 | 26.9% | 28.8% | 22.4% | 17.1 | 6 | 3 |
Nolan McLean
Probable starter
|
NYM vs MIN | 6.07 | 28.7% | 32.5% | 22.4% | 17.0 | 7 | 4 |
Chase Burns
Probable starter
|
CIN vs TB | 5.85 | 31.8% | 36.8% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 2 |
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Probable starter
|
LAD vs SF | 5.66 | 25.0% | 24.3% | 22.4% | 17.7 | 7 | 4 |
Shota Imanaga
Probable starter
|
CHC vs PHI | 5.59 | 26.4% | 26.1% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 6 | 3 |
Connelly Early
Probable starter
|
BOS vs NYY | 5.38 | 25.9% | 26.1% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 6 | 3 |
Kris Bubic
Probable starter
|
KC vs BAL | 5.00 | 24.7% | 22.0% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 10 | 2 |
Luis Castillo
Probable starter
|
SEA vs ATH | 4.94 | 22.5% | 24.4% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 10 | 3 |
Parker Messick
Probable starter
|
CLE vs HOU | 4.74 | 23.1% | 26.8% | 22.4% | 16.6 | 10 | 3 |
Merrill Kelly
Probable starter
|
AZ vs CWS | 4.64 | 20.4% | 18.9% | 22.4% | 16.8 | 7 | 1 |
Landen Roupp
Probable starter
|
SF vs LAD | 4.63 | 24.1% | 26.4% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 10 | 2 |
Kumar Rocker
Probable starter
|
TEX vs PIT | 4.46 | 20.6% | 20.3% | 22.4% | 14.5 | 6 | 2 |
Reynaldo López
Probable starter
|
ATL vs WSH | 4.42 | 22.8% | 23.7% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 7 | 3 |
Steven Matz
Probable starter
|
TB vs CIN | 4.41 | 22.8% | 26.9% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 2 |
Shane Baz
Probable starter
|
BAL vs KC | 4.39 | 22.4% | 22.4% | 22.4% | 16.1 | 10 | 2 |
Luis Gil
Probable starter
|
NYY vs BOS | 4.33 | 21.1% | 16.6% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 6 | 1 |
Ryan Weiss
Probable starter
|
HOU vs CLE | 4.28 | 21.9% | 21.9% | 22.4% | 15.6 | 5 | 0 |
Kyle Harrison
Probable starter
|
MIL vs DET | 4.23 | 23.4% | 24.5% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 3 |
Simeon Woods Richardson
Probable starter
|
MIN vs NYM | 4.21 | 18.6% | 19.0% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 6 | 3 |
Jacob Lopez
Probable starter
|
ATH vs SEA | 4.20 | 21.8% | 20.4% | 22.4% | 14.6 | 10 | 3 |
Foster Griffin
Probable starter
|
WSH vs ATL | 4.14 | 20.9% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 3 |
Chris Paddack
Probable starter
|
MIA vs STL | 4.11 | 20.2% | 17.5% | 22.4% | 15.1 | 6 | 2 |
Dustin May
Probable starter
|
STL vs MIA | 4.06 | 20.4% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 15.3 | 6 | 3 |
Jack Kochanowicz
Probable starter
|
LAA vs TOR | 3.78 | 18.0% | 16.0% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 6 | 3 |
Sean Burke
Probable starter
|
CWS vs AZ | 3.75 | 18.8% | 18.1% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 6 | 2 |
Patrick Corbin
Probable starter
|
TOR vs LAA | 3.73 | 19.9% | 21.0% | 22.4% | 15.5 | 10 | 0 |
Randy Vásquez
Probable starter
|
SD vs COL | 3.55 | 19.1% | 20.8% | 22.4% | 15.2 | 6 | 3 |
Keider Montero
Probable starter
|
DET vs MIL | 3.48 | 19.5% | 21.3% | 22.4% | 14.8 | 10 | 1 |
Carmen Mlodzinski
Probable starter
|
PIT vs TEX | 3.46 | 22.6% | 25.0% | 22.4% | 13.7 | 10 | 2 |
Jimmy Herget
Probable starter
|
COL vs SD | 2.82 | 20.4% | 18.1% | 22.4% | 13.1 | 9 | 2 |
Context
What V1 Shows Publicly
Only fields already produced by the current model output.
Pitcher Skill
Season and Last 5 K Rate
These explain whether the projection is being driven by the pitcher’s current strikeout baseline or more recent form.
Opponent Context
Opponent K Rate Last 14 Days
This is the cleanest public-facing opponent context from the current feature set without overloading the table.
Workload Context
Outs Per Start, Rest, Starts
These help frame expected length, freshness, and how stable the current-season sample is for each pitcher.